观点速递
本文作者是波兰中央银行行长亚当·格拉平斯基，原文摘自货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）的第四份年度调查“全球公共投资者（Global Public Investor）”，OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。
作者提出，波兰及兹罗提（波兰货币）应对美联储和欧洲央行收紧货币政策保持乐观态度。一是因为原有的紧缩政策效果已达到极限；二是央行和金融市场在沟通上犯的错误已经得到修正，人们不必担忧回归常规政策会引发恐慌；三是回归常规政策，波兰货币将处于竞争有利地位。最后他指出，先前的货币紧缩政策的负面效应资源配置机制已经难以调节，回归常规政策是正确的选择。
中文译文如下：
不必害怕宽松货币政策的终结
经济需回归更为常规的政策
亚当·格拉平斯基 于华沙
翻译：周护杏
审校：肖柏高
随着美国联邦收紧货币政策，欧洲中央银行或准备效仿，我很期待非常规货币政策的退出，波兰和兹罗提（波兰货币单位）没有什么可担心的。
一定程度上，购买资产似乎收到了想要的效果：信贷增长走强，通缩的威胁消退。欧洲中央银行在帮助欧元经济中的作用超出大家的预期，表现出彩。因而，改变现有政策的做法似乎很明智，不仅仅是因为该政策已经到达极限，同时，继续购买资产可能会考验德国的耐心。
波兰也不总是跟随德国脚步，但是对德国的目标充耳不闻的做法欠妥，而且会导致欧元区最大成员国在欧洲被隔离。
之所以要对回归更为常规政策感到乐观，还在于人们不必再次经历2013年的“缩减恐慌（taper tantrum）”。虽然美联储先是暗示可能减少购买资产，随即引发债券市场抛售，但央行和金融市场在沟通上犯的错误已经得到修正。因而，美联储最后两次加息几乎没有引发任何动荡。
在缩减恐慌之前，量化宽松政策下投资者疯狂抢购新兴市场资产，在一些新兴市场国家，高利率导致大量资本流入，投资者和国内发行者为此困惑不已。随着缩减开始，人们开始认为不切实际的过高估值是不可持续的。也就不难想到，对于市场参与者而言，缩减最后都以恐慌告终。
波兰货币兹罗提和其它中东欧的非欧元货币一样，难以从欧洲央行资产购买中获益。相较于缩减恐慌前美国和那几个新兴国家之间的利息差，欧盟内部的利息差要小得多。现在波兰货币处于竞争有利地位，比起2013年更为如此。的确，几乎每次测试的结果都是波兰货币的实际价值被低估。所以，兹罗提在任何缩减面前都有很强的抵抗能力。
负利率政策和量化宽松政策对资产管理者，其中包括为央行工作的管理者而言都是噩梦。由于政府为更多盈利而向中央银行施压。因而不难想象许多中央银行开始进一步用股票解决问题。
这种大胆的做法，我非常敬佩，但我不认为这样的政策适用于波兰中央银行。德国也正在拒绝走这条路，这点令人欣慰。
在不断追求更快增长的同时，我们低估了消极利率政策对金融体系的破坏作用。民众也不认为，如果银行系统再陷危机，他们会提供更多帮助。所以为了避免另一场危机，就不能再给银行提供任何可能将他们引入危机的激励。
我们一直在采取非常规货币政策，我不想否认它们带来的好处，但我们现在讨论的是，这些政策带来的坏处已经使资源配置机制难以发挥作用。这些政策不仅反对节俭的价值观，同时引发更多道德风险。所以，终结该政策要比预期会带来更多好处。
如果在2017年注定要进一步退出非常规货币政策，我们也不应当掉以轻心。即便从非常规货币政策中获益的国家也应当在未来数月中找到积极的政策。
英文原文如下：
Don't be alarmed by the end of QE
Economies need a return to more normal policies
by Adam Glapiński in Warsaw
Wed 24 May 2017
With the US Federal Reserve's tightening process under way and the European Central Bank probably preparing to follow suit, I am looking forward to an exit from unconventional monetary policies. Poland, and the złoty, have nothing to fear.
The purchase of assets seem to have delivered, to some extent, the desired results: credit growth is getting stronger and the threat of deflation has receded. The ECB surpassed everyone's expectations in the help it offered to the euro area economy. That is why it seems wise to reverse the policy, not only because it has reached its limits, but because continuing the purchase of assets may test the patience of Germany.
Poland may not always agree with Germany but remaining deaf to its objections would be unwise, and could lead to the largest euro area member becoming isolated within Europe.
Another reason to be optimistic about a return to more normal policies is that no one needs to be haunted by the 2013 'taper tantrum' – the bond market sell-off after the Fed suggested that it might reduce asset purchases. The mistakes in central bank communication with financial markets have been amended. As a result, the Fed's last two interest rate rises caused hardly any upheaval.
The taper tantrum was preceded by a buying spree of emerging market assets in the wake of the quantitative easing. High interest rates in some emerging market countries engineered such inflows that their volume confused both the investors and domestic issuers. As the taper kicked in, unrealistic valuations started to be perceived as unsustainable. Little wonder that for those market participants the taper ended in a tantrum.
The złoty, along with other non-euro currencies in central and eastern Europe, has hardly benefited from the ECB purchase of assets. The disparity in interest rates in the EU is far smaller than that between the US and selected EM economies prior to the taper tantrum. Right now, the złoty is at competitive levels, even more so than in 2013. Indeed, almost every gauge of real value points to its undervaluation. For these reasons, the złoty will prove resilient to any tapering.
Both the negative interest rate policy and QE are nightmares for asset managers, including those working for central banks. Little wonder that many central banks – under pressure from their governments to generate higher profits – start to flirt more with equities.
I admire their boldness but it's not a policy I consider appropriate for the National Bank of Poland. It's a consolation that Germany is resisting that path, too.
In the relentless pursuit of higher growth, we underestimate the damage to the financial system caused by the negative interest rate policy. I do not see public opinion backing more help for the banking system if it gets into trouble again. So it makes sense to stop providing banks with incentives that may result in another crisis.
Unconventional monetary policies have been around for too long. I do not want to deny their positive effects but we are talking about policies that distort the basic mechanism of resource allocation with all the negative consequences. They not only discourage values such as thrift but they stimulate moral hazard. That is why ending them may be far more beneficial than expected.
If 2017 is to be marked by further exit from unconventional monetary policies, it should not be a reason to lose sleep. Even those who have benefited from unconventional monetary policy should be able to find something positive in the months ahead.
Adam Glapiński is Governor of the National Bank of Poland. This article appears in OMFIF's fourth annual Global Public Investor.
Adam Glapiński is Governor of the National Bank of Poland. This article appears in OMFIF's fourth annual Global Public Investor.
观点整理 张晨希
图文编辑 张晨希
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