2017年10月12日 21:45:13 三钱二两

阿特斯太阳能,英文名是Canadian Solar,很多人都以为是家加拿大的能源公司,但其实这是一家由中国人建立的世界一流光伏企业。

阿特斯成立于2001年,2006年在美国上市,全球拥有9700名员工,在全球18个国家有办事处。在过去的16年里,累积组件出货量达22Gw,自建电厂规模为超过3.2Gw。

阿特斯在2016年,被IHS评为全球第一组件厂商,这无疑是对阿特斯组件品质的背书。

其创始人,瞿晓铧博士毕业于清华大学,还是国家千人计划的特聘专家,为人低调,是位深耕光伏行业十六年的老兵。

如果我们去问行业内的人,对阿特斯的看法,我想一致的评价便是“稳”。

对于稳这一点,我们不仅可以从阿特斯目前的财务状况看出,其账上现金及其等价物为9.61亿美金,超过其他美国上市的竞争对手(晶科为2.25亿美金,晶澳为4.77亿美金),同时也可以从其创始人的战略看出:

在瞿博士为数不多的媒体采访中,他多次表示:

阿特斯不做行业老大

究其原因,瞿博士认为有两层意思:

第一,阿特斯不做第一,是因为不去争出货量的第一,这样才能做好风控,保证应收账款,避免坏账;第二,阿特斯要做Team1,要成为第一方阵,那就要求你要勇于争先,跑在前列,但如果说一定要做第一名,那就会出现超越经营底线的问题。

关于应收账款,据钱真理的了解,在国内,阿特斯的组件都是全款发货,其应收账款都是海外部分,这使得阿特斯的应收账款对国内的风险敞口很小。

如果我们去看阿特斯的过往以及现在,确实正如瞿博士所想,阿特斯都没有当过行业老大(之前的行业老大是尚德,英利,天合,而现在的行业老大是晶科,晶澳),但一直都是光伏行业公认的一线厂商。

如果我们去翻看阿特斯的业绩,从2006年开始,阿特斯的出货量从2006年的15MW增长到2017年预计的6.5Gw,增长433倍,年复合增长率为73.7%,也远高于行业平均增速。

值得一提的是,截止2017年6月30日,阿特斯目前自持电站为1.26Gw,正在建设的电站为1.39Gw, 价值约18亿美金。

这里不得不提的是,因为阿特斯比较稳,也比较谨慎,这一次的单晶浪潮阿特斯便起步比较晚,之前将精力都放在了黑硅多晶的路线,但目前最新的消息称阿特斯也将投资于单晶。

对于光伏以及阿特斯的未来,瞿博士在LinkedIn上面写了一篇很有远见的文章(写于2016年10月,原文是英文,我也附在文章的最后),这里我翻译分享给大家:

在巴黎气候协议签署后,可再生能源已经成为新经济发展的方向。我常常被问道,未来十年我们会看到光伏带来的哪些惊喜呢?

我已经在光伏行业工作了二十年,所以先让我来回顾下,过去光伏给我们带来的惊喜:

惊喜1:成本

十年前,安装光伏系统需要10美金/W,而如今只需要1美金/W,同时,今天的光伏面板可以发电30年。通常,制造一块面板所需的能量大概是光伏面板发电2年所需的能量,所以光伏面板在制造20多年的清洁能源。

惊喜2:规模

十年前,全球光伏的装机量每年为3-4Gw,而在2016年一年,我们就装了超过60Gw。

对于阿特斯来说,在2002年的时候,我们的第一款产品是给奥迪车的一块3W的电池充电器,那一年,我们制造了20万个,一共是700KW。而今天,我们的一块面板是320W,而我们一年要生产几千万块,大概是5.4-5.5Gw。在短短的15年里,增长了8000%。

惊喜3:区域

人们总是觉得光伏是一个昂贵的能源,同时只能适用于赤道附近的国家,而不是在像加拿大这样纬度较高的国家。但事实上,以阿特斯为例,我们在加拿大的一个省,安大略省就安装了近2Gw,同时,我们甚至在南北极的科考站都装有光伏。

未来的惊喜

我想,未来10年的惊喜来源于成本,规模和科技。对于成本,如果未来光伏成本再下降30%,我也一点都不奇怪。如果光伏成本再下降50%,这将是一个跨时代的事件,这将让光伏和其他任何的化石能源可以竞争。

对于规模,我想未来十年的装机量会在100Gw,但也许在2025年,我们也会到每年200Gw的装机量。

科学家认为,晶硅电池的转化率极限为30%。首先,30%的转化率是一个不错的数字,因为火电的转化率为30%-40%,其绝大部分能量都用于发热浪费了。但如果有人能够发明一个结构,使得转化率变为50%,同时制造成本很低,这便真是一个惊喜。

储能与微电网也会是一个惊喜。随着光伏越来越有竞争力,越来越多的人会越来越独立于过去的电网。这会使得有很多间隙性的光伏能源,在白天产生,需要储存和控制。这里面会有很多机会,尤其是对技术的需求。

电动车也和光伏有协同作用。人们通常白天开车去上班,所以他们可以在白天充电其电动车,充分利用白天的日照时间。这是一个自然以及特别完美的储存太阳能的方法。

消费者同时会有更多的选择,同时我们也会开发各式产品来满足消费者的需求。现在,99%的光伏面板都长得一样,在未来,我们不仅会制造标准的光伏面板用于大型电站,同时我们也会有光伏屋顶,停车场屋顶的应用等。

我也喜欢能源互联网这个概念。在宏观上,这意味着电力的调配,如从北方运输风力,从南方运送太阳能。在微观上,这意味着建立区域性智能电网,使得电力的传输,储存能够被监测,控制以及平衡。今年,我们与Ottawa Hydro会完成4MW的锂电池的储能系统,与Guelph Hydro建立一个微电网的实验室,这两者都是世界上首次。

我已经能够预见,化石能源将逐渐退出历史舞台。我希望这个过程是循序渐进的,使得化石能源资产不要一下子就被抛弃。

但事实上,这一切发生的比任何人都预想的要快。可再生能源的利用,就想瀑布一样,不可阻挡。今天,太阳能仅占全球能源的1%不到,未来十年我预计会占到10%。在2050年,科学家预计未来可再生能源将会占到所有能源的50%。这难道不是一个惊喜吗?我想我们很多人都会有机会见证这一时刻的到来。

目前,阿特斯的估值为9亿美金(对应股价15.7),对应的是年底约6.97Gw的组件,4.49Gw的电池片,4Gw的硅片制造业端,同时还有阿特斯自持的电站与在建的电站资产。

这在我看来也是低估的,根据彭博的预测,阿特斯2018年的收入可以达到38亿美金,对应约2亿美金的利润,至少也应对应20亿美金的市值。

(阿特斯上市以来的股价)

附:瞿博士在LinkedIn上的原文《Suprises in Solar》

After theParis agreementon climate change and carbon reduction was signed, renewable energy leaped to the front line of the New Economy. I am often asked these days, “what are the surprises we may expect in solar technology in the NEXT ten years?”

Well, I have been working in this industry for 20 years, so first of all, let’s count the surprises the solar industry has experienced in the past.

Surprise No. 1 is cost

It used to cost end-customers $10/W to install a solar system less than 10 years ago, now it’s $1/W. Andtoday’s solar panels can generate electricity for 30 years.It usually takes less than two years for the solar panel to generate enough electricity to offset the energy it takes to produce all the solar equipment, so you are producing ‘carbon free’ electricity for the next 20 years and beyond.

Surprise No. 2is scale

Ten years ago, we used to install 3-4 GW of solar power plants each year across the globe . In 2016 alone, we will install more than 60 GW worldwide.

Canadian Solar itself is a living testimony for this scalability. Back in 2002, our first product was a 3 W car battery trickle charger for Audi. We produced about 200,000 units in that year, with a total capacity of roughly 700 kW. Today the product we produce the most is the 320 W solar panel for grid-tied applications. We are going to produce tens of millions of units with a total capacity of 5.4 - 5.5 GW this year- a growth of over 8000% in only 15 years.

Surprise No. 3 is location

People used to think solar is a product of luxury and should only be adopted in equatorial countries, not in Northern countries like Canada. But in fact we have already installed 2 GW of solar in the Province of Ontario, Canada alone. And we have even seen Canadian Solar panels installed at an Arctic research station due to their superior low light performance.

Surprises of the future

I think the surprises in the next 10 years will again come from cost, scale and technology. I wouldn’t be surprised if we can cut the cost of solar equipment BY another 30%. A cost reduction of 50% however would be a game changer, as solar would be competitive to any fossil fuel at that cost level.

Scalewise, we forecast 100 GW of annual solar installations 10 years from today, but who knows, we may surprise ourselves by installing 200 GW per year in 2025.

Scientists think that the theoretical efficiency limit for silicon solar CELLs to convert sunlight into electricity is just below 30%. This is a respectful number by the way, as the energy efficiency of a coal-fired power plant is only in the order of 30-40% - most of the energy generated by burning coal ends as wasted heat rather than useful electricity. However, somebody may invent a layered and compound solar cell structure with 50% efficiency that is still cheap to make – that would be a real surprise.

Energy storage and microgrid control technology will also bring us surprises. As solar electricity is becoming increasingly cost competitive, more and more people andcommunities will want to install themselves and become independent from the grid. There could be a lot of inTERMittent solar electricity being generated at peak hours that we need to store and control. There’s a vast amount of opportunities for such technology and know-how.

Electric CARS work perfectly with solar. People primarily drive electric cars to commute from home to work. They charge their cars during the daytime, making the most out of the peak hours for solar power generation. This reflects a natural shift of load, and it’s a perfect way to store solar power.

Consumers will have more choices and we will develop different products to match their needs. At this moment, 99% of all solar panels look the same. In the future we will produce not only large standard panels for utility-scale power plants, but also solar shingles for roof-integrated applications, solar canopies for carparks etc. There won’t be a ‘one size fits all’ solution. To address sustainability, we actually need a ‘scattergun approach’, because we live in a diversified ecosystem, and we have to address the little things in order to maintain the eco balance.

I like the term ‘Energy Internet’. On a macroscale, it means transporting green electricity through transmission lines, for example shipping wind electricity from the North and solar electricity from the South. On a microscale, it means establishing community smart grids, in which green electricity, load and energy storage devices can be monitored, controlled and intelligently balanced. We are building pilots and we are learning. This year we will complete a 4 MW lithium iron based energy storage system with Ottawa Hydro and a microgrid testing lab with Guelph Hydro. Both are among the first in the world.

I can see most fossil fuel assets being phased out and decommissioned. I hope this process happens gradually so that those fossil fuel assets don’t get stranded.

What should Canada do? The country has to look both inward and outward. At this moment, 4 out of 10 Canadian provinces have adopted renewable energy portfolio standards. All 10 provinces should have such standards. All cities should have such standards. This will give sustainable economy a home market. Meanwhile, Canada is exporting its renewable energy products and know-how instead of setting aggressive regulations and targets to build up its home market. Once that is in progress, both industry and society will figure out the best combination of solutions.

The pace of change will be faster than anyone can imagine. The development and deployment of renewable energy will be like a waterfall. Today, solar accounts for less than 1% of the worldwide energy generation, but it has the potential to reach 10% in the next 10 years. Scientists believe that renewable energy can account for 50% of our energy generation by 2050. Well, wouldn’t that be a pleasant surprise? Many of us will have a chance to live and see that day.

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