TLS合作方AlphaNYC独家出品：全球市场每周回顾_

Contents | 目录

Global Econ Indicators | 全球宏观经济数据

U.S. | 美国

Retail Sales | 零售销售额

Industrial Production Index | 工业制造指数

Canadian CPI | 加拿大消费者物价指数

Euro | 欧洲

U.K. CPI | 英国消费者物价指数

Asia and Pacific | 亚太

Japan Real GDP | 日本实际GDP

Financial Market | 金融市场

Equity | 股票

Blue Chips Fall for Second Week in a Row | 蓝筹股持续两周走低

Rate | 利率

World's Major Central Bank Monetary Policy No More in Sych | 世界主要央行的货币政策不再同步

Credit | 信用

Consumers Ramp Up Spending; Debt Rises | 消费者逐步增长的消费与堆积的债务

Commodity | 大宗

China Drives a Melt-Up in Metals Prices | 中国经济拉动金属价格

Currency | 货币

Bitcoin gets a boost | 比特币破$4000创新高

Topic of the Week | 周话题

Solid earnings meet with little cheer | 欧美股市投资情绪低迷

NAFTA Talks Open With Frictions Evident | 北美自由贸易协定重启协商

Market Application of Corporate Tax Cuts | 减税政策对美股影响

Market Data Recap | 市场数据纵览

Global Equity | 全球股市

Global Interest Rate | 全球债市

Commodity | 大宗

FX | 汇率

The Week Ahead | 核心经济数据日期

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Global Econ Indicator

全球宏观经济数据

U.S. | 美国

Retail Sales | 零售销售额

Retail sales provided the most positive piece of economic news in the United States this week. Sales topped expectations in July and, coupled with upward revisions to prior months, suggest a stronger pace of consumer spending than originally believed.

Retail sales rose 0.6% to kick off the third quarter, topping expectations for a 0.3% gain. The strength in retail sales was broad based, with motor vehicle and parts dealers' sales increasing 1.2% and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers' sales increasing 1.2% after registering a 1.1% gain in June. Even department stores sales, a sector that has been negatively affected by the eruption of online sales, posted a strong 1.0% increase for the month.

7月零售销售额数据超过预期，同比增长3.6%，环比增长0.6%。各部门零售销售全面报好，其中机动车及零部件销售环比增长1.2%, 建材销售环比增长1.2%。面临着电子商务严重冲击的百货零售也于7月报出了强劲的销售数额，环比增长1.0%。零售销售额连续3个月报好，利好美国第三季度经济。

Industrial Production Index | 工业制造指数

Industrial production growth came in below consensus in July, fell 0.1% on the month. The automobile sector was a key driver of the miss, with monthly output declining 3.6%. Seasonal factors can sometimes wreak havoc on the July figures in this sector due to summer shutdowns at auto plants, but the fourth decline in five months suggests a genuine downward trend in production rather than just seasonal noise. Through the monthly volatility, manufacturing production as a whole is up 1.3% on a year-over-year basis, consistent with our forecast for modest but steady growth in the sector more broadly.

7月工业制造指数低于预期，同比增长1.3%，然而环比下降0.1%。各部门中汽车车制造业表现最差，环比下降3.6%。汽车制造业近5个月中有4个月的数据表现不佳，因此虽然汽车制造业受到一定程度的季度因素影响，但此次汽车制造业的下滑为长期趋势而非季节因素主导。

Canadian CPI | 加拿大消费者物价指数

Canadian CPI inflation for July increased to a year-over-year rate of 1.2% from 1.0% the prior month. Bank of Canada (BOC) is expected to raise rates again this year. The BoC targets inflation between 1% and 3% and as close as possible to the midpoint of that range. The BoC's three remaining meetings are in September, October and December. The September meeting occurs just before the FOMC meeting that month, so we expect the October meeting to be the first realistic opportunity for the BoC to hike rates.

加拿大消费者物价指数同比增长1.2%，达到央行目标通胀率（1%-3%），因此加拿大央行（BoC）今年上调利率可能性较大。未来三次的加拿大央行会议分别于9月，10 月与12月，美国公开联邦会议（FOMC）之后的10月会议或成为加央行第一次加息的机会。

Euro | 欧洲

U.K. CPI | 英国消费者物价指数

This week brought the latest reading for CPI inflation in the United Kingdom, and we learned that the year-over-year rate of inflation held steady at 2.6%, just shy of the consensus expectation for 2.7%. Some of the upward pressure on prices has to do with the marked depreciation of sterling in the wake of last year' s Brexit referendum.

Bank of England is also in a situation where a rate hike could be justified. The main catalyst for this pressure to hike is the fact that inflation is running a little hot. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) looks for this pass-through effect to continue to push inflation higher in the coming months and to peak at around 3% in October before the effect begins to fade. If the U.K.' s economy picks up over the next 18 months as we expect, the BoE could raise rates as soon as next spring.

英国消费者物价指数同比上涨2.6%，略低于2.7%预期。物价上涨压力部分来自于自去年退欧公投以来英镑的持续走弱。

面对物价上涨的压力，英国央行（BoE）或会上调利率。英国货币委员会认为，英镑的走弱还将继续给英国带来物价上涨的压力，通胀或与10月达到3%。若英国下半年经济数据报好，英国央行最快将于明年春季上调利率。

Asia and Pacific | 亚太

Japan Real GDP | 日本实际GDP

Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized pace of 4.0 % in the second quarter, and in so doing it extended the number of consecutive quarterly expansions to six—the longest winning streak in more than a decade.

Domestic demand picked up substantially in the second quarter as growth was driven by consumer spending as well as business fixed investment spending. Both components posted their largest quarterly increases in years and together boosted the headline GDP growth rate offsetting a modest drag from trade.

日本经济稳健增长，第二季度实际GDP为4.0%，同比增长2.0%。日本经济连续第六个季度上涨，为近15年来最长时间的持续增长。第二季度强劲的消费与投资共同拉动日本经济，抵消疲软贸易的拖累。

Financial Market

金融市场

Equity | 股票

Blue Chips Fall for Second Week in a Row | 蓝筹股持续两周走低

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week lower, capping a rocky stretch that included political turmoil, terror attacks and disappointing earnings. Stock indexes spent much of Friday hovering between slight gains and losses, as a lack of major economic data and corporate earnings contributed to quiet trading. Then declines picked up toward the close on Friday, echoing Thursday’s late-session selloff.

On Thursday, the Dow industrials posted their biggest decline in three months, as Wal-Mart Stores and Cisco Systems declined following earnings reports, and investors were rattled by a terror attack in Spain and fallout from President Donald Trump’s remarks on the protests in Charlottesville, Va.

In the latter part of the week, investors shifted to assets viewed as safer in times of stress, citing concerns about simmering geopolitical tensions and the Trump administration’s strained relationship with business leaders, which sends Treasury Yield lower (Yields fall as prices rise) and Japan's yen and gold prices higher. Utilities, viewed as bond proxies for stock investors, were among the best performers in the S& P 500 on Friday.

At the same time, investors fled from smaller-company shares. The Russell 2000, a benchmark of small-cap stocks, fell 1.2% for the week. The index jumped in late 2016 as investors bet that smaller, U.S.-focused companies would benefit from Mr. Trump’s policies. This year, the index has largely underperformed the broader stock market.

道琼指数本周持续走低，创三个月最大跌幅。巴塞罗那恐袭，白宫政治动荡（弗吉尼亚州暴力冲突后Trump对极右白人种族主义的模糊谴责、商界顾问委员会解散、首席战略师Steve Bannon离职），与财务报表表现不佳为股市下挫的主要原因。

本周市场情绪低迷，投资者追逐‘安全性’资产。美国国债价格走高（利率下降），日元与黄金价格走高，公用事业股相较于其他类股票表现最佳。与此同时，投资者对小市值股票的热情进一步减退，Russell 2000 本周下挫1.2%。大选结束后，投资者对Trump政策的乐观态度，使得小市值股票去年年底持续走高。然而Trump行情退去后，今年小市值股票的表现则差强人意，Russell 2000 的回报远低于标普与道琼。

Rate | 利率

World's Major Central Bank Monetary Policy No More in Sych| 世界主要央行的货币政策不再同步

For the past several years, the world' s major central banks have broadly embraced very accommodative monetary policy. More recently, policy has started to go in different directions. The Fed is in a rate tightening cycle, the Bank of Canada raised rates in July with another hike expected this year. The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce plans to dial back its asset purchase program as early as this autumn. Despite this backdrop, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is not quite in synch with the world’s major foreign central banks at present.

At its July meeting, the BoJ made no change to that stance and even lowered its inflation forecast. Japan CPI figures for July will print next week. With inflation still well-below target, we do not expect the BoJ to signal any substantive change in its comprehensive package of monetary policy accommodation.

过去几年，世界主要经济体的中央银行货币政策呈现同步性。然而最近，各国的政策利率开始出现差异。美国央行（Fed）进入利率收紧周期，加拿大央行（BoC）于7月上调利率，并预计年底之前再次上调利率，欧洲央行（ECB）预期最早于秋季结束资产回购的刺激政策。

然而在全球央行结束货币宽松的大趋势下，日本银行（BoJ）依然没有收紧货币的计划。日本7月CPI将于下周公布，预期CPI仍远低于目标通胀率，因此日本央行仍将保持宽松的货币政策。

Credit | 信用

Consumers Ramp Up Spending; Debt Rises| 消费者逐步增长的消费与堆积的债务

U.S. consumers ramped up spending last month, supported by low unemployment, rising confidence and a sense their personal finances have been repaired a decade after the housing crisis spurred a mission to pare back debt.

But there is a catch: Households are again running up debt, and they are saving less, which could constrain spending in the future.

The latest positive spending trends carry some risks. A big chunk of spending of late has been covered by debt: Total credit-card balances grew $20 billion in the second quarter to $784 billion, the highest since late 2009, the New York Federal Reserve said in a separate report Tuesday. Overall debt—including mortgages, auto loans and student loans—hit a record $12.8 trillion.

Americans have also dramatically reduced their savings over the past year.

The personal-saving rate fell to 3.8% in June, down from a recent peak of 6.3% in October 2015 and not far off from prerecession lows. The dual trends of lower saving rates and higher debt indicate that animal spirits—a desire to spend and invest—are rising among households. That might be getting fueled by higher stock prices.

美国的低失业率刺激了消费者信心，消费金额持续上涨。然而与此同时，美国家庭金融状况并未好转，负债率自金融危机后再次增长，储蓄率降低，长期的低储蓄会影响未来消费。

报好的零售业销售数据中暗含着风险，大部分的消费源于借贷而非储蓄。第二季度美国信用卡账户增长$200亿美元，总共高达$7840亿美元，超过金融危机前的高位。私人借贷总额（包括房屋借贷，汽车借贷，学生贷款，信用卡贷款）现已高达$12.8万亿美元。个人储蓄率已从2015年的6.3%降至3.8%,远低于金融危机前的储蓄率。低储蓄与高借代暗含着风险与不稳定性。

Commodity | 大宗

China Drives a Melt-Up in Metals Prices | 中国经济拉动金属价格

Signs that China’s economy is rebounding, led by solid growth in manufacturing and construction activity, have helped fuel a furious rally in industrial commodities. Beijing has also been trying to cut back on overcapacity, especially in steel and aluminum, furtherboosting prices. Industrial commodities such as iron ore, steel, aluminum and copper have been surging. Nickel also has shot up since Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte last month chided the country’s mining industry for its environmental record and said he may consider stopping the exports of unprocessed raw materials. The Philippines is the world’s largest exporter of nickel ore.

China’s revival, together with a softening U.S. dollar, have helped support a significant rally this year in emerging-markets shares. But is the rally overdone? Copper inventories on Comex have been on the rise, suggesting that the market is well supplied. What’s more, the rally appears vulnerable to the rising tension between the U.S. and North Korea. Like so many wild cards in financial markets, that one may not matter until it does.

中国经济的稳健复苏，主要依赖于制造业与建筑业的增长，因此拉动了一系列工业大宗商品的需求。与此同时，政策导向的减少产能过剩，供给减少的预期，也进一步推动了工业金属的价格。工业大宗，包括铁矿石，铁，铝，铜的价格均有不同程度的上涨。另外由于世界最大的镍出口国菲律宾表示，可能由于环境原因会停止未加工的镍原材料出口，镍的价格也出现了上涨。

中国经济的复苏与走弱的美元，共同利好发展中国家的股市。大宗与股市的上涨行情能否持续？其中值得注意的是，铜储备量不断上涨，供给仍然十分充足。同时美国与北朝鲜紧张的政治局势仍为重要风险因素。

Currency | 货币

Bitcoin gets a boost | 比特币破$4000创新高

The price of the digital currency bitcoin over the weekend crossed over the $4,000 market for the first time in its nine-year history, despite a widespread selloff in other major digital currencies.

比特币价格于本周突破$4000, 为发行9年以来的最高值，然而其他平台的虚拟货币遭遇了不同程度的抛售。

Topic of the Week

周话题

Solid earnings meet with little cheer | 欧美股市投资情绪低迷

Equity markets have greeted positive earnings reports largely with indifference. Investor sentiment shows more signs of fatigue than euphoria, even as stock markets have repeatedly reached new highs this year. Yet we see solid fundamentals and returns in the second half, with the latter largely tracking earnings growth.

Companies that beat on both earnings-per-share (EPS) and sales expectations were met with muted price responses this quarter, as the chart shows. The S&P 500 companies beating on EPS and sales have on average traded flat compared to the benchmark on the day after earnings release, versus nearly 1% outperformance last quarter. Meanwhile, companies that have missed on both earnings and sales were hit particularly hard, especially in Europe.

尽管美股第二季度财报季报好，股市持续走高，投资者情绪仍保持低迷。由下图所示，报好的基本面（每股盈利与当季营收同时超过预期）并不能支撑美股的进一步上涨，股价基本持平；然而美股投资者对负面信息（每股盈利与当季营收同时低于预期）回应强烈，股价平均下降约2%。相对应欧洲股市投资者对于低于预期的基本面，反应更为强烈。低于预期的财报发后欧洲股价平均下降近3%。

NAFTA Talks Open With Frictions Evident | 北美自由贸易协定重启协商

U.S. wants to remake pact to ease trade deficits, while partners seek a lighter update.

The Trump administration launched the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement by laying out a starkly different vision from that of its two continental trading partners of how the pact has worked and how radically it should be rewritten.

Mr. Lighthizer pointed to Nafta’s success for many U.S. farmers, but he said it has hurt many others. The U.S. wants to boost rules to protect intellectual property, guard against currency manipulation and make changes to disputeresolution mechanisms in Nafta to “protect our national sovereignty,” he said.

Trump 内阁于周三重启北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）的协商，要求伙伴国做出重大退让，以削减美国与墨西哥及加拿大之间的贸易赤字，并提升美国汽车的自制率。

美国贸易代表莱特希泽（Lightizer）表示虽然NAFTA对美国农业有所助益，但对其他部门的损害更大（下图从左至右依次为汽车行业，农业，能源；对于美国仅有农业为贸易顺差，汽车制造与能源均为贸易逆差）。加拿大外交部长弗理兰(Chrystia Freeland)对于美国关注缩减贸易逆差提出抨击。

【红色】贸易逆差【蓝色】贸易顺差

NAFTA重新商议的结果会对北达科他州 (North Dakota)，德克萨斯州 (Texas),与密西根州 (Michigan) 影响最大。其中密西根州27%的GDP依赖于与墨西哥和加拿大的贸易。

Market Application of Corporate Tax Cuts | 减税政策对美股影响

Investors face significant uncertainty regarding the extent, rates and timing of any potential Trump tax cuts, assuming they occur at all. Even so, we would note that equity market performance in the wake of several recent major tax cuts was positive, which we consider useful context for investors today.

虽然Trump 减税政策有着极大的不确定性，但若减税政策顺利通过，股市的表现将会如何？根据过去近100年的5次减税政策的结果来看，减税与股市回报有着明显的正相关关系。