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Contents | 目录
U. S. | 美国
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | 美国能源署石油周报
Refinery & Production | 原油精炼与产出量
Supply | 供给量
Import & Export | 进出口
Inventories | 库存量
Price | 价格
Recent Highlights | 近期要闻
Post-Harvey: slow recovery & new threatens | 哈维过后:缓慢恢复与新的威胁
Remarks | 评点
China | 中国
Chinese readies new crude oil benchmark | 中国筹备全新原油基准
Potential cut of oil supply to North Korea | 中国可能切断对朝鲜石油供应
Remarks | 评点
OPEC | 石油输出国组织
Libyan output resumes to normal | 利比亚石油产量回归正常
Recent Highlights | 近期要闻
OPEC fails to cut oil exports below 2016 levels | OPEC未能控制8月出口量在去年以下
Remarks | 评点
The Week Ahead | 核心原油数据日期
Appendix | 附录
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U.S. | 美国
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | 美国能源署石油周报
Refinery & Production | 原油精炼与产出量
As shown in table 1, by 9/1, U.S. crude oil input to refineries was 16.806 million barrels/day. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.5 million barrels/day during last week, 3.3 million barrels/day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 79.7% of their operable capacity. Gasoline production decreased last week at 10.183 million barrels/day, averaging over 9.5 million barrels/day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.5 million barrels/day, at 4.981 million barrels/day.
如图1所示，截止到9月1号， 上周美国原油精炼原料投入为1680.6万桶／天。一周平均值为1450万桶／天， 比前一周相比减少330万桶/天。原油精炼产量为实际产能的79.7%。汽油产量减少到1018.3万桶／天，一周平均值为950万桶／天。馏分油产量减少至498.1万桶／天，一周平均值为450万桶／天。（参见图1）
Table 1 Source: EIA. Numbers shown above are ending stocks.
Table 2 Source: Bloomberg Baker Hughes United States Crude Oil Rig Count Data
As in table 2, one thing to notice is that the U.S. rotary rigs number stayed unchanged:759. Two weeks ago the number of active rotary rigs decreased further from 763 to 759. The reason of this unchanged index in the past week could be the slow recovery process from the damages caused by the Hurricane Harvey. In table 3, we observe a significant drop in U.S. crude oil production. There's still large part of U.S. total refinery capacity remained shut down. And this causes the drops in U.S. crude and refined products.
图表2中我们看到上周美国活跃钻井数没有变化，维持在了759这一水平。 两周之前这一数字的变化为768到763. 过去一周这一活跃钻井数指标没有变化可能是因为美国的炼油厂还在从哈维带来的影响中缓慢恢复。图表3中我们看到美国原油产出量在上周有一个显著下降，这是因为飓风哈维使德州的大量炼油厂关闭，导致原油产出减少了8%，其他精炼产品也有不同程度的减产。（图1与图4的差值部分为出口量）
Table 3 Source: Bloomberg DOE crude oil total production data.
Supply | 供给量
As in table 4, by 9/1, total products supplied was 20.765 million barrels/day. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged about 20.8 million barrels/day, up by 0.2% from the same period last year. Motor gasoline supplied was 9.54 million barrels/day. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged over 9.5 million barrels/day, down by 1.0% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied was 4.068 million barrels/day, averaged about 4.1 million barrels/day over the last four weeks, up by 9.9% from the same period last year.
如图4所示， 截止到9月1号，石油产品总供应为2076.5万桶／天， 过去四周平均值约为2080万桶／天，与去年同期相比增长了0.2%; 汽油产品供应为954万桶／天， 过去四周平均值超过950万桶／天，比去年同期少1.0%; 馏分油产品供应为406.8万桶／天， 过去四周平均供给约为410万桶／天，比去年同期增长9.9%。
Table 4 Source: EIA.
Import & Export | 进出口
As mentioned in EIA's weekly report, by 9/1, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.1 million barrels/day last week, down by 822,000 barrels/day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 8.0 million barrels/day, 2.8% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 475,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 110,000 barrels per day last week.
如EIA周报中所提到的，截止到9月1号，上周美国原油进口数为平均710万桶／天，与前一周相比减少了822，000桶／天。在过去的四周里，原油进口平均为800万桶／天，比去年同期相比减少2.8%。车用汽油(包括成品油和混合组分油)总进口为平均475，000桶／天。馏分油进口为平均110，000桶／天。（详细细节参见图5-7）
The details of imports, exports and net imports are shown in table 5-7 below:
Table 5 Source: EIA.
Table 6 Source: EIA.
Table 7 Source: EIA.
Inventories | 库存
As in table 8, by 9/1, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 462.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased 3.2 million barrels last week, but are near the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week but are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 6.3 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 7.0 million barrels last week.
如图8所示，截止到9月1号，上周美国的原油库存（不包含战略原油库存）增加了460万桶，为46,240万桶。原油库存量处于年同期平均数的较高位水平。车用汽油的库存减少了320万桶，但仍处于年同期平均较高位置水平。 成品汽油库存有所增加而混合组分油库存相对减少。 馏分油库存减少了140万桶，但处于年同期平均数的较高位水平。丙烷／丙烯存量增加了630万桶。商业原油及产品油总数增加了700万桶。（参见图8）
Table 8 Source: EIA.
Table 9 Source: Bloomberg DOE Crude Oil Total Inventory data (excluding SPR)
Table 10 Source: Bloomberg DOE Total Change IN Crude Oil Total Inventory data (excluding SPR)
Price | 价格
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil future price kept fluctuating in the last week, ending at a level of 49.09 $/barrel on September 7.Starting from 46.54 $/barrel on August 28, WTI crude price decreased for the first 2 days, then gradually rose as Harvey's impact was fading out. Ending up at 49.16 $/barrel on September 6, the highest point during the past week.
WTI原油期货价格上周持续波动，在美东时间9月7号下午五点时的价格为49.09美元／桶。 WTI原油期货上周一的起始价格为46.54美元／桶，先下跌了两天，然后随着飓风哈维的影响渐渐消退开始逐渐上涨，最终在9月6号涨至49.16美元／桶的过去三周最高点。
Table 11 Source: Bloomberg WTI crude future price for the past 6 months.
Table 12 Source: Bloomberg WTI crude future price for the past month.
Recent Highlights | 近期要闻
Post-Harvey: slow recovery & new threatens | 哈维过后：缓慢恢复与新的威胁
As of Thursday, about 3.8 million barrels of daily U.S. refining capacity, or about 20 percent, was still closed. While Harvey's effects were slowly fading, the massive Hurricane Irma hit Caribbean islands and was heading for Florida, where fuel shortages were reported as gas stations struggled to keep up with demand from customers filling tanks ahead of the storm's landfall, expected this weekend.
Another Atlantic storm, named Jose, is following on Irma's heels and has been upgraded to hurricane strength by the U.S. National Hurricane Centre. Yet another hurricane, Katia, is developing in the Gulf of Mexico.
截止到本周四，美国仍有大约380万桶／天的产能，相当于总产能的约20%因哈维影响而持续关闭。尽管哈维的影响在缓慢地退去，另一个更强的飓风伊尔马却袭击了加勒比海并朝着美国佛罗里达州袭来。本周晚些时候，在佛州的加油站里挤满了为应对预计周末登录的飓风伊尔马而提前储油的人们。
与此同时另一个风暴何塞也在大西洋上形成并已被认定为飓风等级，它也将向美国袭来。此外另一个飓风卡蒂亚也正在墨西哥湾形成。
Remarks | 评点
WTI crude future price experienced a fair amount of increase early this week with Harvey ‘s impacts fading gradually and refiners back to production slowly. U.S. crude prices received some support as U.S. refineries increase their oil demand as they recover from recent flooding. At $49.16/barrel on Thursday, WTI crude futures were close to their highest in more than three weeks.
However, crude settles at $47.48 per barrel on Friday, down by over 3%, as roughly 20% of U.S. refineries still remain closed and an even bigger hurricane heading for Florida. This drop in crude price is due to the fears that Hurricane Irma could interrupt crude shipments in and out of the U.S. Latest data shows that U.S. oil drilling rigs declined by 3 to 756 on Friday, the third drop in 4 weeks. Next week we may see a further decrease in rigs number since both shipments of crude import and refined products exports will be influenced by hurricane Irma. Therefore， we should see crude price drop again just like what happened with Harvey.
随着飓风哈维的影响缓慢消退，WTI原油期货在本周早些时候经历了较大上涨。随着炼油厂缓慢恢复生产，对原油的需求增加，WTI原油期货本周四涨至49.16美元／桶的过去三周最高值。然而原油期货在本周五又下跌了3%，至47.78美元／桶。这是由于美国仍有近20%炼油厂处于关闭状态，且一个更强大的飓风正在朝佛罗里达州袭来。原油价格的下跌是因为市场担心新飓风伊尔马很可能会影响出入美国的油轮航运。最新数据显示本周五美国活跃钻井数再次降低至756，这是四周内的第三次下降.下周我们可能看到这一数据的进一步下跌，因为原油进口的航运和成品油出口的航运都会受到伊尔马的影响。同时我们会看到原油价格再次下跌，就像哈维来袭时发生的一样。
China | 中国
Chinese readies new crude oil benchmark | 中国筹备全新原油基准
According to Nikkei Asian Review, China is preparing to launch a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan and convertible into gold, potentially creating the most important Asian oil benchmark and allowing oil exporters to bypass U.S.-dollar denominated benchmarks by trading in yuan.
The crude oil futures will be the first commodity contract in China open to foreign investment funds, trading houses, and oil firms. To make the yuan-denominated contract more attractive, China plans the yuan to be fully convertible in gold on the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges.
根据日经披露，中国正在准备发行一个以人民币为单位并可与黄金挂钩的全新原油期货基准。这一潜在的亚洲重要基准可为石油出口国家提供一个美元主导基准以外的新选择。此原油期货基准将成为中国第一个对外国投资基金，交易所和石油公司开放的大宗商品交易合约。为了使它更有吸引力，中国计划让人民币可以通过上交所和港交所实现与黄金的完全转换。
Potential cut of oil supply to North Korea | 中国可能切断对朝鲜石油供应
After North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test and claimed it had detonated a hydrogen bomb on Sunday, China is likely to support tougher sanctions against North Korea, including cutting crude oil exports, according to Chinese diplomatic analysts.
In response to North Korea’s latest and most powerful nuclear test, the Trump administration is expected to press China to impose an oil embargo on the North, cutting off the flow of petroleum through the pipeline and on tankers, too.China stopped reporting exports of crude oil to North Korea several years ago.But given its recent economic growth, North Korea would be expected to import about 850,000 tons of crude oil this year, almost entirely from China
据分析称，在上周日朝鲜进行了第6次核试验（据称为氢弹）之后，中国可能会支持对朝鲜的进一步制裁，潜在的制裁措施包括切断对朝鲜的石油供给。而美国亦可能会进一步施压中国，期待中国能切断通过原油管道和邮轮对朝鲜的石油供应。中国在几年前停止公布对朝鲜的石油出口数据。但分析师们根据朝鲜的经济增速推断，其今年所需的石油进口约为85万吨，几乎全部来自中国。
Remarks | 评点
China's new yuan-based crude future contract could change the rules of the global oil game enormously. Backing the yuan-priced futures with gold would be appealing to oil exporters, especially to those that would rather avoid U.S. dollars in trade. It allows oil exporters such as Russia and Iran, for example, to bypass U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan. If it manages to be launched within this year, we could probably see further drops in prices of both WTI crude future and ICE Brent futures, as they would become less attractive.
中国以人民币为单位的全新原油期货合约可能给全球石油市场带来极大震动。以人民币为单位并与黄金挂钩的新基准对那些石油出口国家很有吸引力，特别是那些希望在贸易中避免使用美元的国家。此新基准让这些国家，例如俄罗斯和伊朗，可以通过使用人民币来避开美国的制裁。 如果这一基准成功发布我们可能会看到WTI 原油期货和ICE Brent原油期货价格的进一步下跌，鉴于它们的吸引力可能会打折扣。
OPEC | 石油输出国组织
Libyan output resumes to normal | 利比亚石油产量回归正常
Oil output at Libya's Sharara field, the country's largest, resumed on Wednesday after a valve was reopened on a pipeline shut by an armed group for more than two weeks, Libyan oil industry sources said. This puts pressure on OPEC and other producers seeking to rein in a global supply glut and firm up prices.
据利比亚国内消息源透露，两周前被武装分子袭击而关闭的，位于利比亚沙拉拉的全国最大油田于本周三开始恢复正常生产。这一变化将给OPEC和其它希望放缓原油供应，并以此抬高价格的国家增加新的压力。
Recent Highlights | 近期要闻
OPEC fails to cut oil exports below 2016 levels | OPEC未能控制8月出口量在去年以下
OPEC exported 25.19 million bpd of crude oil last month, the lowest since April this year, Thomson Reuters Oil Research said, but the eight-month average for the year to date was 25.05 million bpd, exceeding the average for the corresponding period of 2016, which stood at 24.85 million bpd.
OPEC officials insist that the output cut deal is working and global supply is falling, despite export patterns. The deal might get another extension beyond March 2018。 The chance of this happening remains uncertain but the option is on the table.
据路透社的研究显示，OPEC上月原油出口为2519万桶／天，为今年4月以来最低。但过去8个月的出口平均值为2505万桶／天，超过了去年同期值2485万桶／天。尽管如此，OPEC官员仍然认为减产计划是有效的。OPEC的减产计划可能会在明年3月到期后再次延期。
Remarks | 评点
What’s more disheartening for OPEC is that the August fall was mostly a result of supply disruptions in Africa rather than the outcome of the conscious effort. Crude oil exports from OPEC’s African members tumbled by 540,000 bpd to below 5 million bpd after posting their highest export volumes in July since at least Jan. 2015, thereby breaking a four-month streak of rising exports. While this fall in crude oil exports from Africa compensated for higher shipments from Middle Eastern OPEC members, it will likely be short-lived. And once these African members' outputs resume to normal levels, we could potentially see a fair amount of increase in OPEC's production and exports.
令OPEC更为头疼的是，8月份原油出口数据的下降可能主要是由于非洲成员国原油供给量的变动，而非努力执行减产计划的成果。OPEC非洲成员国上月的原油出口数据减少了54万桶／天，下降至500万桶／天以下，为2015年一月以来的最低水平，也打破了连续四个月的原油出口上涨记录。这一数据的下跌被其他中东成员国的出口增长所掩盖，其影响也应是暂时的。一旦非洲成员国们的供给从动荡中恢复过来，我们可能会再次看到OPEC总产量和出口量的增长，减产计划的效果也将再次打上问号。
The Week Ahead
核心原油数据日期
