全球市场每周回顾【09/25/2017】_

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Contents | 目录

Global Econ Indicators | 全球宏观经济数据

U.S. | 美国

FOMC Meeting | 美联储会议

Existing Home Sales | 成屋销售

Asia and Pacific | 亚太

BOJ Interest Rate Decision | 日本央行利率决议

China's credit rating downgraded | 标普下调中国信用评级

Financial Market | 金融市场

Equity | 股票

Bank stocks surge, utilities stocks down on the Fed | 联储会议推动银行股走高公用事业股票走低

Tech Stocks Fuel Emerging-Markets Rally | 科技股在新兴市场“大放异彩"

Rate | 利率

Treasury yields jump after Fed signals support for another rate hike | 联储暗示加息国债利率大涨

Portugal Bonds Lead Peripheral Rally on Debt Rating Upgrade | 葡萄牙国债评级调高公债大涨

Commodity | 大宗

U.S. Oil Exports Flow as Prices Decline | 美国石油价格走低推动出口增长

Currency | 货币

Beijing Draws a Bead On Virtual Currency | 中国掀虚拟货币监管风暴

Topic of the Week | 周话题

Fed to Unwind Crisis-Era Stimulus | 量化宽松的退出

Market Data Recap | 市场数据纵览

Global Equity | 全球股市

Global Interest Rate | 全球债市

Commodity | 大宗

Currency | 货币

The Week Ahead | 核心数据日期

Economics Calendar | 经济指数

Earnings Calendar | 财报预告

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Global Econ Indicator

全球宏观经济数据

U.S. | 美国

FOMC Meeting | 美联储会议

Fed holds rates steady, will start reducing its balance sheet in October: On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announced that it would leave its benchmark interest rates unchanged but suggested that a hike is likely by the end of the year. Officials projected there would likely be three rate increases in 2018 and two in 2019.

美联储周三没有上调短期利率，并表示将于10月份启动酝酿很久的缩表计划：美国联邦储备委员会（简称：美联储）周三没有上调短期利率，但在12月份会议上加息的可能性依然存在。与此同时，美联储表示将于10月份启动酝酿很久的缩表计划。美联储预计2018年或有3次加息，2019年或有2次加息

Source: Federal Reserve

Existing Home Sales | 成屋销售

US home resales drop to 12-month low: US home resales fell 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million units in August, the lowest since August 2016. A sharp decline of 25% year on year in home sales in Houston, related to Hurricane Harvey, accounted for most of the overall decline in sales. The South saw a 5.7% decline. Continued aftereffects of the hurricane are expected to negatively impact home sales in September.

美国8月成屋销售持续下降创一年新低：全美地产经纪商协会（NAR）数据显示，美国8月成屋销售总数年化535万户，环比下降1.7%，均低于预期。休斯顿地区，受飓风哈维影响，房屋销售下降25%；南部房屋销售黄碧下降5.7%。飓风对房屋销售的影响预计将持续到9月。

Source: National Association of Realtors

Asia and Pacific | 亚太

BOJ Interest Rate Decision | 日本央行利率决议

BoJ Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged: On Thursday, after its two-day policy meeting, the Bank of Japan announced that it will hold interest rates steady at -0.1%. The central bank also kept its yield target for 10-year Japanese government bonds at around 0%. Dovish board member Goushi Kataoka was the sole dissenter.

日本央行按兵不动：周四，日本央行发布9月货币政策利率决议，如市场预期按兵不动，并维持以每年80万亿日元左右的速度购债的承诺不变。为期两天的会议以8-1票决定维持政策不变。利率仍维持在-0.1%；目标十年期利率为0%。新晋鸽派委员片冈刚士投下唯一反对票。

Source: Bank of Japan

China's credit rating downgraded | 标普下调中国信用评级

On Thursday, Standard and Poor's downgraded China's long-term sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+, following a similar downgrade by Moody's in May. S&P claimed that China's sustained period of strong credit growth has increased its economic and financial risks. The credit rating agency expects credit growth will persist at levels that increase the country's financial risks for the next two to three years. In addition, S&P demoted China's short-term rating from A-1+ to A-1.

周四，标准普尔(Standard & Poor)调低了其对中国的信用评级。中国长期主权信用评级从A+下调至AA-，四个月前，标普的竞争者、债务评级机构穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)也降低了对中国的信用评级。标普表示，中国经济强劲增长的动力是高额借贷，预计未来2-3奶奶这种借贷将持续下去。这可能会让这个世界第二大经济体处理潜在金融冲击（比如银行出现的危机）的能力受到损害，并可能带来更长期的增长问题。此外，中国短期信用评级从A-1+下调至A-1

【图】中国债务总额为GDP3倍

Source: Institute of International Finance

Financial Market

金融市场

Equity | 股票

Bank stocks surge, utilities stocks down on the Fed | 联储会议推动银行股走高公用事业股票走低

The rise in yields helped lift bank shares. Financial stocks in the S& P 500 rose 2.7% for the week, though on Friday they slipped less than 0.1%. In the past two weeks, the sector has risen 6.1%, posting its best performance since the two weeks ended Nov. 18.

Meanwhile, shares of power-plant operators fell as Treasury yields rose in the wake of the Federal Reserve's policy statement. Fixed income investors often alternate between Treasurys and the dividend-paying stocks and any move higher in Treasury yields could be a lure away from the utility sector.

利率的上升推动银行股上涨；标准普尔500指数中的金融板块本周上涨2.7%，尽管周五出现小幅下滑。在过去两周中受加息情绪影响，金融板块上涨6.1%，为自去年11月以来的最好表现。

与此同时，受美联储政策影响，发电厂公司的股票持续走低。固定利率投资者通常认为国债与稳定支付股息的股票（如公用事业类股票）互为替代品；因此国债利率的走高会使得公用事业类股票失去吸引力。

【绿】金融板块【灰】标普500【粉】公用事业板块

Tech Stocks Fuel Emerging-Markets Rally | 科技股在新兴市场“大放异彩"

Tech companies have powered this year’s rally in the developing world, helping the MSCI Emerging Markets Index’s performance rise 29% the highest in six years. Top performers include South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and fast-growing Chinese ecommerce companies Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd.

The rise of technology companies represents a major reversal from earlier years, when banks, utilities and commodities producers dominated stock trading in the developing world. In 1995, when global investing in emerging-markets stocks started to take off, tech shares accounted for only 2% of the index, according to MSCI. Now, tech companies make up about 27% of the emerging markets index. That is slightly more than U.S. tech stocks’ share of the S& P 500’s market value, which was nearly 24% at the end of August.

科技股推动新兴市场牛市行情。截至周一，发展中国家科技股今年的涨势已经推动MSCI新兴市场指数上涨29%，是六年以来最高水平。年初至今，MSCI新兴市场指数中的科技行业累计上涨54%，涨幅几乎是前者的两倍。其中，表现最好的公司包括韩国三星电子，台积电，以及阿里巴巴、腾讯这类中国电商。

过去新兴市场股票的交易主要集中在银行业、公用事业或大宗制造业；此次科技股的走高显示出了重要趋势转折。1995年新兴市场指数刚刚成立的时候，科技股市值仅占整个指数的2%，如今增长至27%。甚至高于美国科技股占比；标准普尔500指数中科技类股票市值占比为24%

【上图】MSCI指数中不同板块占比，其中橘色为科技板块

【下左】科技领投公司股票2017【下右】MSCI新兴市场指数 (2011-2017)

Source: MSCI, FactSet

Rate | 利率

Treasury yields jump after Fed signals support for another rate hike | 联储暗示加息国债利率大涨

There were North Korea jitters and the Fed this week. Bond yields advanced after the Fed’s suggestion that it could raise interest rates once more in 2017 and three more times next year caught some investors by surprise. Weak inflation numbers in recent months had made some investors question how quickly the Fed could raise rates. But after the Fed meeting Wednesday, investors now see a more-than 70% chance of a rate increase by the end of the year, according to federal-fund futures tracked by CME Group.

After North Korean claim 'may consider a nuclear test' on Thursday, Government-bond prices increased Friday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note falling to 2.262% from 2.278% Thursday.

美联储会议与朝鲜危机为本周主要事件。美联储表示今年或有第三次加息明年或有3次加息超过投资者预期，国债利率大涨。尽管近期较弱的通胀数据使得投资者担心联储是否实行加息决议，然后在会议后年底加息概率上涨至70%，根据CME联邦基金期货数据得出。

北朝鲜周四宣布或有核试验, 继而美国债券价格有小幅上升；10年期利率下降至2.262%

【黑】2年期利率【蓝】10年期利率【绿】3月期利率

Source: Investing.com

Portugal Bonds Lead Peripheral Rally on Debt Rating Upgrade | 葡萄牙国债评级调高公债大涨

As Europe’s economic recovery begins to pick up speed, Southern European countries have taken the lead. Portuguese debt has been one of this year’s top investments, a major turnaround from a few years ago when Portuguese yields ballooned to as much as 16% during the Greek debt crisis that pounded bonds in Italy and Spain, too. Now, Portugal’s 10-year sovereign bonds have returned 23% this year, better than any other bond in the eurozone, excluding coupon payments.

Portuguese bonds got a big lift Monday after Standard & Poor’s returned the country’s rating to investment grade, which it lost during the euro crisis in 2012. Yields on 10year Portuguese bonds plunged to around 2.4%, the lowest since late 2015. S&P said the bond upgrade reflected a growing economy, a reduced budget deficit, and “the receded risk of a marked deterioration in external financing conditions.”

随着欧洲经济的复苏，欧洲南部国家经济增速领先。近期葡萄牙国债为今年最热门投资产品之一。希腊债务危机重创葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利公债；在这段时间内葡萄牙公债利率上涨近16%，价格大幅下跌。今年葡萄牙十年期公债价格上涨23%，领先欧洲其他国家债券走势。

上周五标准普尔在三大评级机构中率先将葡萄牙的信用评级调回投资级别，葡萄牙在2012年1月债务危机最严重的时候丧失了投资级评级。周一葡萄牙股债券价格应声大幅上涨，葡萄牙10年期公债收益率下滑逾20个基点，为2.4%左右，为2015年底以来最低。标普表示评级上调反应该国经济和公共财政改善。

【上图】欧洲国家10年期公债价格变化(%),黑色为葡萄牙

【下左】葡萄牙与欧元区GDP环比增长【下右】欧洲国家与德国10年期公债利率差

Source: Thomas Reuters, Factset, TradeWeb, Eurostat

Commodity | 大宗

U.S. Oil Exports Flow as Prices Decline | 美国石油价格走低推动出口增长

U.S. oil is trading at the biggest discount to the global price in two years, helping extend a boom in exports of crude from American shale fields to refiners in Europe and Asia. After Hurricane Harvey hammered the Gulf Coast last month, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. reference price, sank to as much as $6.30 a barrel below its European counterpart, Brent—the widest gap since August 2015.

Harvey has passed, but analysts say the storm will reshape global crude flows for months. A difference of at least $4 makes it attractive for a refiner in countries such as China or South Korea to buy oil from shale producers in Texas and North Dakota.

美国原油与布伦特原油的价差达到两年内的峰值，推动美国原油对欧洲亚洲精炼厂的出口。自上个月哈维飓风袭击湾区后，西德克萨斯轻质原油（WTI）价格一路走低。目前与欧洲原油价差已经达到$6.3每桶。

分析师认为哈维过后，飓风对全球原油输出的影响将持续数月。$4美元的价差足以吸引中国韩国等国家的炼油产进口美国德州与北达科他州的页岩油。

【上图】美国原油与布伦特原油价格

【下左】美国原油周产量【下右】美国原油周出口

Source: WSJ Market Data, EIA

Currency | 货币

Beijing Draws a Bead On Virtual Currency | 中国掀虚拟货币监管风暴

China's clampdown on bitcoin has hurt global prices and domestic trading volumes; for now China remains a major center for bitcoin mining. Regulators have decided on a comprehensive ban on channels for the buying or selling of the virtual currency in China that goes beyond plans to shut commercial bitcoin exchanges, according to people familiar with the matter.

Officials communicated the message to several industry executives at a closed-door meeting in Beijing on Friday, according to people who were at the meeting. Many entrepreneurs in China’s bitcoin circles had thought authorities might shut down only commercial trading activity while tolerating peer-to-peer, or over-the-counter, bitcoin platforms.

中国叫停比特币使得全球虚拟货币价格与成交量出现断崖式暴跌。中国曾长时间为全世界最大的比特币矿场。中国相关监管机构决定全面禁止中国的比特币交易渠道和其他数字货币交易平台。之前投资者普遍预期中国会关闭比特币交易平台，而并非全面禁止。

虚拟货币行业内多为执行长于上周五在北京进行约谈。多为创业者认为中国政府或许只关闭数字交易平台，但仍允许比特币的P2P与场外交易

【左】比特币价格【中】比特币不同货币交易比例【右】2017矿场分布

Source: Coindesk, bitcoinity.org

Topic of the Week

周话题

Fed to Unwind Crisis-Era Stimulus | 量化宽松的退出

After spending $2 trillion on government bonds in an effort to stimulate the economy, the Federal Reserve can hardly admit that it doesn’t know how, or even if, it worked. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday came as close as she is ever likely to get to accepting that quantitative easing is still poorly understood even by the experts. Explaining why the central bank prefers to set short-term rates rather than buy or sell stuff, she said it was because “we believe we understand pretty well what the effects [of rate changes] are on the economy,” and so do investors. Left unsaid: No one’s really sure how, or if, QE works.

The Federal Reserve indicated Wednesday it remained on track to raise short-term rates later this year and said it would begin shrinking its portfolio of $4.5 trillion bonds next month. This matters enormously to investors as the Fed setsout on quantitative tightening. It’s starting small, allowing a maximum of $10 billion of bonds a month to mature without the money being reinvested. But in a year, that will be up to $50 billion a month, more than the Fed bought each month during the first phase of QE3 in 2013.

$20亿美元的量化宽松政策意在刺激金融危机后的美国经济。然而美联储至今无法直接回应，量化宽松政策对美国经济具体产生怎样的影响，是否产生正面影响。美联储主席耶伦周三暗示，经济学家对于QE至今仍较为有限，并指出中央银行仍偏好短期利率手段调节货币而非大量买卖债券来改变货币供给。耶伦周三强调，美联储的资产负债表并非正常时期常用的货币政策工具。

美联储将与10月启动酝酿已久的缩表计划，压缩2008年金融危机以来购买的$45亿美元的国债与住房抵押贷款证券（MBS）。这意味着美联储将停止把到期债券的本金全数再投资购买新债券的做法。美联储的方案是，每月让100亿美元债券到期且不再投资，另外从明年10月起每季度将这一额度上调100亿美元，直至500亿美元上限。

【图】美联储资产分布 — 国债，MBS，其他

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Fed officials projected GDP to come in at 2.2% this year, slightly higher than their expectations back in June, but the predicted speed of rate increase has nonetheless slowed slightly. They also reduced their inflation expectations from 1.7% to 1.5% and now expect that inflation will not reach 2% until 2019.

此外美联储上调了 2017年GDP预期为2.2%，高于6月会议时预期；然而利率增速预期稍有下降。同时通胀预期由1.7%调低至1.5%，并预计2019年通胀不会达到2%