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作者何亚非系外交部前副部长、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院高级研究员、全球治理研究中心主任，本文刊于10月10日中美聚焦网。
近来一些美国学者认为，面对中俄挑战，美国缩手缩脚，不敢直面应对，丧失了采取果断行动所必需的“悲剧情怀（Tragic Sensibility）”和忧患意识。
所谓“悲剧情怀”，是来自古希腊对悲剧的痴迷和反思。古希腊盛行演出悲剧，产生了很多至今脍炙人口的悲剧和剧作家。悲剧既是全民的主要文化生活和娱乐，更是保持希腊国民关心国家命运兴衰永不懈怠的忧患意识之来源。古希腊历史学家和海军将领修昔底德，对当时希腊与斯巴达之间的战略竞争，以及双方并非刻意追求战争却最终未能逃脱伯罗奔尼西亚战争灾祸的历史，写过长篇论述，分析刻画入木三分，希望人类未来的大国领导人能够保持“悲剧情怀”，从大国战争的历史悲剧中汲取教训，时刻警惕，防止再次陷入战争陷阱，即“修昔底德陷阱”而不能自拔。
伯罗奔尼西亚战争
回顾美国二战后牵头建立其主导的国际秩序和治理体系，美国总统威尔逊、罗斯福及社会精英对二次世界大战美国被动卷入并付出巨大代价均有切肤之痛，由此产生的“悲剧情怀”和忧患意识十分强烈，认识到要阻止战争再次对美国带来祸害，需要建立以美国实力为后盾、能够遏制和约束大国行为的治理体系和国际秩序。
为此，美国在二战行将结束之际即开始筹划新的国际秩序，倡导建立了联合国和以“五大国协商一致（否决权）”为基础的安理会集体安全体系。同时，美国从北约开始，在欧洲、东亚、拉美编织了不少多双边军事同盟网络，以美国强大的军事实力和全球投放能力形成威慑，阻遏任何企图改变世界政治版图的力量。美国迄今建立的全球安全架构由三个层面组成：30多盟友、约30个准盟友、更多数量的安全和外交合作伙伴。美国及其盟友合计占全球GDP和军事支出均在60%以上。
同时，美国认为，只有国际安全机制远远不足以从根子上防止战争，国际政治军事安全有赖于国际经济安全和繁荣，两者相辅相成，密不可分。
因此，1944年的布雷顿森林会议具有划时代意义。美国主导创立国际货币基金组织（IMF）、世界银行、关贸总协定（GATT）就是给美国治下（Pax Americana）的集体安全体系综合配套，使之成为涵盖国际政治、安全、经济、金融、贸易方方面面的全球治理体系。突出的是，以美元金本位为核心的布雷顿森林体系既稳定了国际货币体系，又使之运转自如。
这些是美国为建立其设想并能控制的国际秩序决心付出的必要代价，而驱动美国这一对外战略的潜意识正是“悲剧情怀”，或者说“忧患意识”。美国二战后的战略安排和国际秩序十分成功，尤其在冷战以后更是达到顶峰，已经持续了70多年，其中“美国单极世界”则延续了30年。
伊拉克战争
2003年美国发动伊拉克战争被弗里德曼、扎克里亚等著名学者称为标志“美国世纪结束”的分水岭，美国从此开始走下坡路。由此引发的美国对外战略大辩论很大程度上把美国国运起伏归咎于这70多年长期和平产生的“自我麻醉”和“自满自足”。美国精英希望通过重拾“悲剧情怀”，使美国防止过度收缩和孤立。
美国对外战略如今再次聚焦大国竞争，尤其与中俄战略竞争，与美国重拾“悲剧情怀”密不可分。美国国内现在凝聚人心靠的也是这种忧患意识。美国精英因此敦促美国人民接受这种观点：要防止美国失去世界霸权，要维护美国主导的国际秩序，美国面对南海、乌克兰、叙利亚、伊朗等事关美国核心利益的挑战，得“敢于亮剑”，以遏制中俄等“修正主义国家”的“进攻性”举措。美国出现这些言论和行动有相当的市场。
今年是新中国建立70周年，中国人民在中国共产党领导下艰苦奋斗、改革开放，取得了翻天覆地的变化。中国已是世界第二大经济体，在政治、经济、军事、科技、文化、教育等领域成就有目共睹，正处在向世界强国迈进的历史转折期。
美国的历史和现实对中国是一面镜子。自鸦片战争到新中国诞生前的“百年耻辱”，自中国共产党成立以后上下求索，自新中国建立以来的70年奋斗历程无不告诉我们：忧患意识需要切记心上。居安乐而思忧患，能帮助我们对当前极其复杂敏感、充满各种陷阱的国际环境时刻保持清醒头脑，同时为国家和世界和平稳定、经济发展多做思考和筹划，也要准备付出必要的努力甚至牺牲。中国作为世界大国这样做有其必要。
1、坚持不懈把中国自己的事情做好。坚持党的坚强领导，保持政治稳定、社会和谐、经济发展，这是中国实现中华民族伟大复兴、长治久安并对世界和平与经济繁荣做出重大贡献的根本。
2、敢于斗争、善于斗争、争取合作，妥善处理好大国关系，特别是中美关系，避免陷入新兴大国与霸权国家“你死我活”的“修昔底德陷阱”。在中美关系竞争与合作共存但竞争占主要面的今天，需要做好最坏准备，不要抱有幻想，同时继续从最好处做最大努力，以斗争求合作，努力扩大合作面，积极探索一条和平竞争、摆脱全面对抗的大国相处之道，建立新型大国关系。近期而言，考虑美国大选、弹劾等因素，继续冷静观察，不可急于对一些事情下结论。
3、在国际上团结一切可以团结的力量，维护世界和平与现有全球治理体系，包括自由贸易体系，并对WTO等体系性安排进行必要的调整，以适应全球化的结构性变化。继续积极提倡集体安全、合作安全的新安全观，反对“零和游戏”的安全思维模式。这是中国外交的优秀传统。
4、继续实践正确的义利观，积极推进“一带一路”建设、全球合作伙伴关系网络、人类命运共同体建造，力所能及地提供惠及世界各国的全球公共产品。要从世界大国的高度来看待中国对未来世界秩序的塑造、全球治理体系的改革和维护，积极做贡献、出思想、提方案，施加影响。如今中国已经建立110对各种形式的伙伴关系，参与几乎所有政府间国际组织和500多项国际公约。未来的世界是各国共同的世界，促进国际关系民主化，使全球治理体系更趋公平、公正、合理，以中国之道参与和引领国际新秩序，应该成为中国外交的重要目标。
以下为英文版：
Great-Power Awareness of Crisis and Tragic Sensibility
American scholars have recently trumpeted a geopolitical “tragic sensibility.” They believe that the United States has been reluctant to squarely face the challenges posed by China and Russia – a result of the loss of its tragic sensibility and awareness of crisis needed to create a collective sense of responsibility and take decisive action.
The so-called tragic sensibility originates from the obsession and reflection of tragedies in ancient Greece. The country had many popular tragedies and playwrights. Tragedies were not only the main form of the Greek people’s cultural life and entertainment, but also the source of the awareness of crisis that kept them concerned about the rise and fall of their country.
The ancient Greek historian and naval general Thucydides wrote a long, convincing paper about the strategic competition between Greece and Sparta, and the fact that the two sides did not deliberately pursue war but still ultimately failed to avert the scourge of the Peloponnesian War. He hoped that future leaders of great powers would maintain a tragic sensibility and learn from historical tragedies in order not to fall into the trap of war, or the Thucydides Trap.
Following World War II, U.S. Presidents Wilson and Roosevelt and social elites were deeply affected by U.S. involvement in the two world wars and the huge price it paid. Their appreciation of tragedy and drive to keep the United States – and the world – from being affected by war again led to the establishment of a governance system and international order backed by American power and capable of containing and restraining great-power actions.
To this end, the United States advocated for the establishment of the United Nations and the Security Council, a collective security system based on the consensus of five great powers (the veto power). In addition, beginning with NATO, the United States has woven a large number of bilateral and multilateral military alliance networks in Europe, East Asia, and Latin America, flexing its strong military strength and global military deployment capabilities as a deterrence to any attempt to change the political map of the world. The global security architecture established by the United States to date consists of three levels: more than 30 allies, about 30 quasi-allies and a greater number of security and diplomatic partners. The United States and its allies together account for more than 60 percent of global GDP and military spending.
The United States also believes that international security mechanisms alone are far from enough to prevent war. It maintains that international political and military security depends on international economic security and prosperity and that they complement each other and are inseparable.
The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 is therefore of epoch-making significance. The United States led the creation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to provide comprehensive support for its system of collective security (Pax Americana). It thus produced a global governance system relating to international politics, security, economics, finance and trade. What is striking is that, centered on the dollar gold standard, the Bretton Woods system stabilized the international monetary system and made it work.
These were the necessary costs for the United States to establish an international order largely under its control. The subconsciousness that drove this U.S. foreign strategy was the tragic sensibility or the awareness of crisis. The U.S. strategic arrangement and its vision for international order after World War II have been very successful, especially after the Cold War. They have lasted for more than 70 years, of which the U.S. Unipolar Moment has lasted for 30 years.
In 2003, the United States launched the Iraq War, which, according to Friedman, Zakaria and other famous scholars, marked the end of the American century and the beginning of U.S. decline. The resulting U.S. foreign strategy debate largely blamed U.S. self-deceit and complacency, resulting from the long-term peace of more than 70 years, for its decline. American elites hope that by regaining a tragic sensibility, the United States can prevent excessive contraction and isolation.
U.S. foreign strategy is now focusing again on competition with other big powers, especially China and Russia, which is inseparable from its regaining a tragic sensibility. It is also this awareness of crisis that is now uniting the United States. American elites therefore urge their fellow Americans to accept these views: It is necessary to prevent the United States from losing its world hegemony and to maintain the U.S.-led international order; the United States has to face the challenges to its core interests such as the South China Sea, Ukraine, Syria and Iran; and, to curb the “offensive” measures of “revisionist countries” such as China and Russia, the United States must fight back. There is a big market for these statements and actions.
This year marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese people have worked hard, pursued reform and opening up, and made tremendous changes. China is already the second largest economy in the world. Its achievements in politics, economy, military, science and technology, culture and education are obvious to all. China is at a historical turning point toward becoming a world power.
The history and reality of the United States are a mirror to China. The hundred-year humiliation China had suffered from the Opium War to the eve of the founding of the People’s Republic, the exploration by the Communist Party of China since its founding, and the 70-year struggle since the founding of the People’s Republic have all demonstrated that it is essential for the Chinese to stay aware of crisis. This will help the Chinese to keep a clear head of the current international environment, which is extremely complex, sensitive and full of traps. It will help them think and plan more for peace and stability in China and elsewhere. They must also get ready to exert more efforts or even to sacrifice themselves when necessary.
It is necessary for China to do the following as a world power:
1. Persevere in doing its own things well.
Upholding the Party’s leadership and maintaining political stability, social harmony and economic development is fundamental to China’s national rejuvenation, long-term stability and significant contributions to world peace and economic prosperity.
2. Struggle and strive for cooperation.
To avoid falling into the Thucydides Trap of conflict between emerging and hegemonic power, China should seek cooperation through necessary struggle, strive to expand cooperation and properly handle relations with other great powers, especially the United States. In today’s Sino-U.S. relations – characterized by both competition and cooperation, but primarily competition – China needs to prepare for the worst, abandon illusions and continue to do its best in what suits it the best. It should actively seek peaceful great-power competition instead of all-out confrontation and establish a new type of great-power relationship. In the near term, considering the factors such as the U.S. presidential election and impeachment possibility, Chinese should continue to observe calmly but not jump to conclusions.
3. Update global governance systems and safeguard world peace.
China should strive to unite with all international forces that can be united with, safeguard world peace and existing global governance systems, including the free trade system, and make necessary adjustments to the systemic arrangements such as the World Trade Organization in response to the structural changes of globalization. China should continue to promote a new security concept of collective security and cooperative security and oppose the “zero-sum game” mentality for security. This is an excellent tradition of Chinese diplomacy.
4. Continue to uphold a greater morality while pursuing shared interests.
China should promote the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative, the global partnership network and the shared future of the human community, and provide global public goods that benefit all countries. China should approach its role in shaping the future world order and reforming and maintaining the global governance system as a great power, offering ideas and options to exert influence. China has established 110 partnerships in various forms and participates in almost all intergovernmental international organizations and more than 500 international conventions. The future world is a common world of all countries. Promoting democracy in international relations, making the global governance system more fair, just and reasonable and participating in the improvement of the new international order should become an important goal of China’s diplomacy.
