编者按：在《环球时报英文版》2月23日刊发的第70篇“变局”专栏中，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文认为，电影会成为中国国家实力崛起的重要变量，将带动智能科技、城市发展、现代文化、社会运行、经济形态还有国家软实力的进一步崛起。下文为专栏的中英文版。
本文英文版在Global Times 的版面截图
谁都没想到，当全球疫情仍在肆虐，其他国家很少有人走进封闭的电影院时，2021年春节一周，中国电影市场票房总额竟突破10亿美元，不仅刷新了中国本土同期票房的多项纪录，还刷新了全球单一市场单日票房、周末票房等多项纪录。不出意外的话，2021年，中国电影市场规模将再次超过北美票房，继续领衔全球最大的电影市场地位。
2020年中国第一次超过北美，成为全球最大电影市场时，有人还酸酸地说，那是因为美国陷入疫情，中国票房胜之不武。这种说法完全忽视了中国电影人过去十多年的艰辛努力与中国社会的快速发展。
记得2009年《阿凡达》在中国上映时，中国院线还出于保护主义，故意延迟了两周上映，为集合几乎中国所有顶级影星的两部电影《十月围城》《三枪》让路。当年，一部《阿凡达》在中国票房超过所有中国本土电影的票房总和。那是好莱坞重挫中国电影信心的一年。
但知耻而后勇。21世纪第二个十年，是中国电影人奋进的10年，也是中国城镇化与生活水平加速提升的十年，电影院线、屏幕增速随之呈现年均20%左右的增长。
尽管这个十年中国电影仍面临着来自好莱坞电影如《速度与激情》《变形金刚》《碟中碟》与漫威系列等的冲击，以及因中国开放政策面临如印度电影《三傻大闹宝莱坞》《摔跤吧爸爸》等国际电影的双重挑战，但中国电影正在一步步地收复失地，重俘中国观众的心。
2019年，中国电影票房总额已接近北美票房，仅有《复仇者联盟4》挤入前三名，《速度与激情》勉强进入第10名，其他均是中国本土电影。2020年，中国电影票房前十位已没有了外国电影的踪影。
2021年中国春节档，电影市场火爆到一票难求。多数城市当天上午买不到晚上的电影票，电影票价已达50-55元，甚至有的城市普遍票价超过100元，是2019年平均最高额的20-40%，超过美国的电影平均票价。春节一周的中国票房已超过2009年一年的票房总和。
这背后至少有两个外国人鲜为人知的理由：一是中国电影银幕数量实现了“全球之最”。2020年全国电影院总数达11856家，同比增长率为4.4%；全年银幕数总数达75581块，增长率为8.3%，已占全球总额40%，远超过美国的影银幕数量。
二是中国城镇化、中国人消费能力以及中国社会活力的提升。2020年，中国超越美国成为全球第一大消费市场，文化消费的提升是重要变量。这背后的复杂逻辑包括但不限于中国人对疫情防控的严谨、电子商务的普及、线上消费与运输的增长，还有经济转型初见成效而出现的实质收入提升。
当然，中国电影的追赶还只是开始，差距仍很大。比如，历史上全球前100大票房电影里，仅有一部是中国电影《战狼2》，且排在70多位。中国电影走向国际，还需要更长的时间，电影金融、电影工业、电影科技、电影叙事与美国还有很大差距。
正如加拿大学者马修·弗雷泽在《软实力》（Weapons of Mass Distraction: Soft Power and American Empire）一书中所说，包括电影在内的流行文化的全球扩张，是美国软实力强大的重要体现。
美国电影仍然强大的背后，是其仍然尚存的软实力。正如美国国务院一份报告中所说，对于世界而言，美国电影就像不用美国纳税人供养的亲善大使，让世界各国了解美国的生活方式，无论是从政治上、文化上，还是从商业上的角度来讲，其价值都是无法估量的。
但我对中国电影未来有信心。中国城镇化率仅57%，每个县城仅有3-5个电影院，中国人均电影消费仅6美元，大致人均每年才看一场电影。电影会成为中国国家实力崛起的重要变量，将带动智能科技、城市发展、现代文化、社会运行、经济形态还有国家软实力的进一步崛起。
21世纪第三个十年里，我相信，除了会有更多中国电影会通过14亿人的市场跻身到全球电影票房前100、前50甚至前10位，更重要的是，中国电影会走向世界，打破全球电影的美国垄断，甚至创造全球最高票房。这背后折射的是中国与世界的融合进程，也是中国国家崛起的实质进展。
以下为英文版
China's 2021 movie hits turning heads with awe
By Wang Wen
Illustration:Tang Tengfei/GT
Who would have thought about watching movies in enclosed cinemas as the COVID-19 pandemic continues raging the world? Yet Chinese box-office revenues surpassed $1 billion during the week-long 2021 Spring Festival holidays.
It has set new records both for the domestic box office and for opening day and opening weekend sales in one single market. The scale of China's film market will, expectedly, again surpass that of North America. In that sense, it will continue to lead the world's largest film market in 2021.
When China exceeded North America to become the largest box office market in the world for the first time last year, some people jealously said that China had become the first because the US was mired with the COVID-19 pandemic.
But this view completely ignores the hard work that Chinese filmmakers have made in the past decade and the rapid development of Chinese society.
When Avatar was first released in the US in December 2009, Chinese cinemas delayed its release for two weeks, making ways for two Chinese movies (Bodyguards and Assassins and A Woman, a Gun and a Noodle Shop) that both featured almost all the top Chinese movie stars.
However, Avatar smashed all-time Chinese box-office record at that time. This was a year when Hollywood greatly crashed the confidence of Chinese movies. But knowing shame is akin to courage, as an old Chinese expression goes. The second decade of the 21st century turns out to be a period for Chinese filmmakers to forge ahead, and for China's accelerated urbanization and living standards to rise.
In 2019, the total box office of Chinese movies was close to that of North America, with only Avengers: Endgame in the top three and The Fast and the Furious at the 10th place on the list of 10 highest-grossing movies in China that year. The rest were all Chinese films.
In 2020, there were no foreign movies in China's top 10 box office. In 2021, the movie market is becoming so heated up that it was even hard to buy a ticket during China's Spring Festival holidays.
There are at least two reasons behind this boom. First, the number of Chinese movie screens has become "the highest in the world." In 2020, the total number of cinemas in China reached 11,856, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4 percent. The total number of screens reached 75,581, up 8.3 percent year on year, accounting for 40 percent of the global total - far exceeding that of the US.
The second improvement generally pertains to China's urbanization, the consumption power of Chinese people, and the vitality of Chinese society. In 2020, China overtook the US as world's largest consumer market. The promotion of cultural consumption is also an important variable. The complex logic behind this includes, but is not limited to, the rigorous prevention and control of the coronavirus epidemic in China, the popularization of e-commerce, the growth of online consumption and transportation, and the increase of real income due to China's success of economic transformation at the initial stage.
Undoubtedly, the catch-up of Chinese movies is only the beginning. Yet there is still a big gap with other leading movie markets. For example, there is only one Chinese movie - Wolf Warrior 2 (ranking 54th) - among 100 highest grossing movies worldwide. It will take more time for Chinese movies to go international, particularly in terms of movie financing, industry, technology and narratives. They still lag far behind those of US mastery.
In his book, Weapons of Mass Distraction: Soft Power and American Empire, British-Canadian academic Matthew Fraser noted that the spread of American popular culture, which embodies US soft power, was leading to homogenization on a center-periphery model and increasing US global influence.
Behind the still strong American movies are still surviving as US soft power. According to a US congressional report, as the goodwill ambassadors that need no American taxpayer support, Hollywood movies keep the world informed of the American lifestyle and their values, politically, culturally and commercially, and are immeasurable.
But there is firm confidence in the future of Chinese movies. China's urbanization rate is 60 percent, with only a couple of cinemas in each county. Moreover, figures show that Chinese people roughly go the movie theater once a year in average.
Movies will become important variables during the rise of China's national power, and will drive the further enhancement of its intelligent technology, urban development, modern culture, social operations, economic forms and soft power.
In the third decade of the 21st century, in addition to the 1.4 billion people market, more Chinese movies are expected to enter the top 100, top 50 and even top 10 of the world's highest grossing films. More importantly, Chinese movies will break US monopoly, and even create the highest box office in the world. It reflects the process of integration between China and the world, and also the substantial progress of China's rise.
（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.）
