世界会好，静待花开
——盘古智库2025新年献词
时光如白驹过隙，21世纪即将走完第一个四分之一。后面的四分之三，人类将见证什么？战争还是和平？更深程度的全球相互依存还是新冷战？新的技术爆炸还是科技瓶颈？人被人工智能服务还是控制？
冷战结束以来，从来没有哪个年份像2024年一样，给人们带来如此之多的事关生死存亡的哲学思考，接下来的岁月将被用来书写答案。
这次美国大选期间，特朗普拍着恩隆·马斯克的肩膀说，“这世界不可思议地混乱”。叙利亚事变后，托马斯·弗里德曼在《纽约时报》上写道，许多国家正在经历霍布斯式的沉沦，“失序”才是我们的共同敌人。
如何在“不可思议的混乱”中遏制“共同的敌人”？两个国家因拥有更多能力而负有特殊责任，一个是美国，另一个是中国。
两个月前，1.5亿人用手中选票选择了美国至少在今后四年的基本路径。无论人们多不喜欢特朗普，他所塑造的一个更加魔幻现实主义的美国都将是世界必须直面的。美国正在书写的答案是要通过对内排干“政治沼泽”、对外挥舞关税大棒解决困扰多年的财政赤字陷阱和全球战略错位，不管是否有效，都将给世界带来强烈冲击，中国很可能首当其冲。
中国正在“逆周期”的曲线中苦苦探索，试图解答以投资过热、消费不足、就业市场紧张、流动性过剩等为主要表现的“世纪难题”。对中国这样一个超大规模经济体来说，回答这道难题并无牢靠的理论和经验可循，却又不得不面对外部环境的进一步收紧，形势变得更加复杂了。
岁月并不静好，我们很难在这个岁末年初若无其事地送上风花雪月式的祝福，惟愿祖国和生活在这里的亲朋好友一道爬坡过坎、共克时艰，成功应对困难和挑战。但这显然不够，还想借用温斯顿·丘吉尔说过的一句话相赠：“不要浪费任何一场好的危机”（Never waste a good crisis）。
当年的丘吉尔，从困扰全世界的历史性危机中看到了一个时代的行将结束和另一个时代的即将到来，这样的洞见为他勇毅前行提供了动力。我们当代人能从当下困扰世界的种种危机中看到些许亮色吗？
也许，世界主要力量都将变得更加内顾，发展经济做强自己，确立战略自主，成为共同的政策取向，这固然会滋长保护主义、保守主义，但也可能抑制战争和冲突，提高对外协商与合作的诉求？
也许，国际社会在经历强烈的地缘政治冲突后，对规则与规范的重要性有了更切肤的体会，对强权、霸凌、侵略的抵制更加自觉，道德复兴有可能在国际政治中发生？
也许，因大国竞争而起的全球供应链重组虽已不可避免，但即将分化而成的两套形制和体系以及由此衍生出的两条科技创新路径并非能够真正彼此脱钩，大多数中间地带国家会选择同中国和美国均等发展合作，这其中的千丝万缕联系就是未来商机所在？
也许，人类对商业和传播领域的算法沉浸愈发厌恶，趋利避害、拒绝感官绑架成为共识，一个算法自律、科技向善的时代由此开启？
当然，这些“也许”目前为止也都只是也许，但是，什么时候都不要放弃梦想和努力。最好的情况固然不一定发生，但没有抓住机会实现绝地反击的见识和勇气，最坏的事情就一定到来。
我们中国人要走出惴惴惶惶，勇敢追寻自己的答案。答案有多条，其中最确定的当是，无论世界如何变化，中国都需要首先集中精力办好自己的事，并且继续走向世界。
所以，我们呼吁重建尊重市场、尊重法治、尊重企业家的氛围，让能者、贤者、智者们都能对未来安心、放心、宽心，无甚顾忌地投入到支持国家推进新一轮改革开放的努力中去。
我们呼吁给予经济以更强有力的刺激，尽量拉平和缩短下行的曲线，为结构性改革争取时间和空间。这不仅要靠更为精准的宏观政策手段，也靠把救济措施真正深入到人民群众当中去，切实缓解他们的疾苦和隐忧。从年末中央高层会议提出的基调，我们看到了令人鼓舞的迹象。
我们也呼吁大家各自走出信息茧房，在纷纷扰扰的舆论场上寻找最大公约数，共同构建正常、健康、开放、包容的国民心态，这种心态是中国继续走向世界所必不可少的。
还要呼吁中美两个大国超越彼此分歧，保持最起码的沟通、交流与合作，避免新冷战，避免大脱钩，形成遏制全球失序的基本共识和默契。
在发出这些呼吁后，我们还想说，当今世界一个日益得到公认的基本规律是，一切始于国内。一个和谐稳定、蓬勃发展、面向全球的中国是我们的企业和有能力的个人赖以实现基本价值的根本依托，越是有人要与我们脱钩，我们越要拥抱世界、拥抱全球供应链，绝不退回到关起门来搞建设的年代。
2024年是盘古智库的登高望远之年。年初，我们隆重举办了盘古智库创立十周年庆典。年末，盘古智库总部第三次迁址。
从香山脚下的院落，到葡萄园一号的小楼，再到腾达大厦的27层，盘古智库可谓步步登高。新的总部坐望三山五园、国图首体、万寿紫竹，以及诸多高等学府，可谓文脉充盈，激励盘古智库用下一个十年创出更多业绩。
盘古智库已经为自己的下个十年确立了拥抱“大航海时代”的奋斗主题。诚如易鹏理事长在2024年出版的同名专著中所说，以人工智能、生物技术、新能源为代表的技术突破汇聚成河，给社会生产生活方式带来巨大改变，也为许多旧问题的解决提供了新思路、新方法——其时已至，其势已成，我们需要面向科技、面向宇宙、面向未来，积极拥抱变化，解放思想，建立新的思维方式。
盘古智库努力这样践行。2024年，盘古智库新质生产力调研行覆盖北京、陕西、福建、广东、浙江等省市，聚焦人工智能、大语言模型、新能源、新材料、碳交易、供应链创新等专题。
2024年，盘古智库国际民间科技交流行涉足韩国、沙特、阿联酋、新加坡等国家，中东研究院、新加坡研究院挂牌，与欧盟亚洲中心签订战略合作协议，紧密追随国家发展战略海外布局的调整与延伸步伐。
2024年，盘古智库继续勇担社会责任，致力于推广银发经济，成功举办第五届中国老龄社会峰会，发布《中国老年人生命关怀与尊严保护社会创新——老龄社会研究报告》。
2024年，盘古智库保持对国际政治的关注，在美国大选、中美关系、中东变局、乌克兰危机等重大问题上均及时做出判断。
在不同战线和方向上，盘古智库继续发挥政策建议功能，2024年2月获评新浪财经意见领袖奖“年度最佳智库”。
所有这些努力都是为了让盘古智库及其服务对象们站得更高、看得更远，不被眼前纷扰遮蔽视野，不因暂时窘困丧失进取。
因为我们秉持“天地人和、经世致用”的理念，认为所有的努力只要真正惠及民生福祉，就会产生价值回报；我们牢记“悲观者正确、乐观者前行”的哲学，相信世界穿透迷雾，会重新变得好起来，未来总是值得期许和继续努力。
谨祝所有盘古之友在新的一年里顺遂平安，用坚实脚步丈量未来铺满鲜花的路。
盘古智库
二O二四年十二月三十日
Stay Patient, Stay Hopeful
—The Pangoal Institution’s 2025 New Year’s Message
As 2024 draws to its end, what will we witness in the remaining three-quarters of this century? War or peace? Deeper interdependence or a new Cold War? Technology explosions or technology bottlenecks? AI assistants or AI masters?
Since the end of the Cold War, no single year like 2024 has challenged us with so many profound, philosophical questions about life and death – questions that will take many more years to answer.
During this year’s US presidential election, Donald Trump patted Elon Musk on the shoulder and remarked, “The world is a total mess.” Following the Syrian conflict, Thomas L. Friedman wrote in The New York Times that many countries have descended into this Hobbesian state of nature, and “disorder” has become our common enemy.
How can we contain this common enemy in a world of such chaos? The US and China, endowed with greater capabilities, shoulder special responsibilities.
Two months ago, 150 million Americans decided their country’s fundamental direction for the next four years through their votes. Despite widespread opposition, Trump is set to impose a magical realism version of the US on the whole world. Trump’s solution to his country’s persistent fiscal deficit and global strategic misalignments is to “drain the swamp” and indiscriminately impose tariffs. Whether effective or not, Trump’s actions will significantly impact the world, with China most likely to bear the brunt.
China is struggling with countercyclical adjustments, trying to crack challenges unseen in a century characterized by overheated investment, underconsumption, tight job market, and excess liquidity. For an economy of China’s size, these challenges are formidable enough without established theories or precedents to follow. The increasingly volatile international environment only compounds these difficulties.
Peace is not secured. At this moment of transition between years, how we wish we could send you a simple and romantic blessing, but we must instead wish for our country and our friends to face these challenges with solidarity and resilience. But that is not enough. We also want to inspire you with a quote from Winston Churchill: “Never waste a good crisis.”
In his time, Churchill recognized that the world’s historic crisis represented not just an ending but a beginning. Such insights inspired him to move forward bravely. Now, in the various crises currently disturbing the world, what silver linings can we identify?
As major powers in the world are about to turn their attention back to domestic development, strategic autonomy is likely to become a common policy orientation, which will certainly lead to protectionism and conservatism. Yet perhaps this will also reduce international conflicts and improve diplomatic cooperation.
As geopolitical tensions heighten awareness of the importance of international rules and norms, the world will become more conscious of the need to resist power politics, bullying, and aggression. Perhaps we will witness a moral renaissance in international relations.
While great power competition makes supply chain reorganization inevitable, the two sets of institutions and systems that will emerge and the two different paths to technological innovation that will follow cannot be truly decoupled. Most nations in between will choose to cooperate with both China and the US on equal terms. Perhaps this may be where business opportunities arise.
As public frustration grows with algorithmic manipulation in business and communication, the search for advantage, the avoidance of disadvantage, and the rejection of sensory deprivation will become a consensus. Perhaps we are entering an era of algorithmic responsibility and technology for social good.
Indeed, these scenarios are only “perhaps” for now. However, one should never give up dreaming; one should make every effort to make dreams come true. The best may not happen, but without the vision and courage to seize every opportunity for positive change, the worst is sure to come.
We Chinese people must shake off our doubts and resolutely pursue our own path. Among all the answers, one thing is certain: no matter how the world changes, China must prioritize its domestic affairs while maintaining its commitment to globalization.
Therefore, we call for restoring an environment that honors the market, the rule of law, and entrepreneurship so that the capable, the wise, and the intelligent can be confident and optimistic about the future and fully commit themselves to national endeavors of promoting a new round of reform and opening up.
We call for stronger stimulus to the economy, flattening and shortening the downward curve as much as possible to buy more time and space for structural reform. This requires not only more targeted macro policies but deeper relief measures to address people’s immediate hardships and underlying concerns. In this regard, we welcome the tone set by the high-level central government meetings at the end of the year.
We call on everyone to break free from their information cocoons, find common ground amidst chaotic public opinions, and jointly cultivate a national mentality that is normal, healthy, open, and inclusive, which is indispensable for China’s sustained globalization efforts.
We also call on the two great powers, China and the US, to transcend differences, maintain necessary communication, exchanges, and cooperation, avoid a new Cold War or major decoupling, and reach a basic consensus and tacit understanding to curb global disorder.
In addition, we would like to emphasize a basic rule that is increasingly recognized in today’s world: everything begins at home. A harmonious, stable, prosperous, and globally oriented China is the foundation for our enterprises and talented individuals to create value. The more others try to exclude us, the more crucial it becomes for us to embrace the world and the global supply chain – we shall never return to the era of development in isolation from the rest of the world.
In 2024, the Pangoal Institution was elevated to new heights. At the beginning of the year, we celebrated our tenth anniversary; at the end of the year, we celebrated the third relocation of our headquarters.
From a courtyard at the foot of the Fragrant Hills, to a small building in Vineyard No. 1, and to the 27th floor of Tengda Building, the Pangoal Institution has grown steadily. Now, overlooking the Three Hills and Five Gardens, the National Library of China, the Beijing Capital Gymnasium, the Wanshou Temple, the Zizhuyuan Park, and many institutions of higher learning, our institution is teeming with inspiration and motivated to achieve more in the decade ahead.
Our theme for the next decade is set: Navigating the New Era of Discovery. As Chairman Yi Peng pointed out in the namesake monograph in 2024, technological advances in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and new energy are converging, transforming social production and lifestyles, and offering novel solutions to existing challenges. The time has come, the trend is prevailing. We must orient ourselves to the technologies, the universe, and the future, actively embracing changes, liberating our minds, and establishing new ways of thinking.
We have strived to put it into practice. In 2024, we conducted comprehensive research on new quality productive forces across Beijing, Shaanxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and other provinces and cities, examining artificial intelligence, large language models, new energy, new materials, carbon trading, and supply chain innovation.
In 2024, we facilitated people-to-people exchanges in science and technology in South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and other countries. We unveiled the Middle East Research Institute and the Singapore Research Institute and entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with the Europe-Asia Center, closely following the adjustments and expansions of our country’s overseas layout strategies.
In 2024, we continued to fulfill our social responsibilities. Committed to advancing the silver economy, we successfully held the fifth China Silver Society Summit and released our research report, Social Innovation on Life Care and Dignity Protection for Elderly People in China – A Research Report on Silver Society.
In 2024, we maintained close attention to international politics, making timely judgments on major issues such as the US election, China-US relations, the upheaval in the Middle East, and the conflict in Ukraine.
We continued to play our role as policy advisors across multiple sectors and areas. In February 2024, the Pangoal Institution was named Think Tank of the Year in the Sina Finance KOL Award.
By striving to reach higher ground and broaden our perspective, the Pangoal Institution and those it serves will avoid being blinded by immediate chaos or discouraged by temporary setbacks.
At the Pangoal Institution, we believe in harmonizing nature with humanity and applying knowledge for public policy solutions; we believe that all efforts are worthwhile when they truly benefit people’s livelihoods and well-being; and we embrace the wisdom that while the pessimist complains about the wind, the optimist prepares for it to change. Therefore, we have faith that the world will emerge from the mist into a brighter tomorrow. Looking ahead, there is always something worth looking forward to and working hard for.
May all our friends have a safe and smooth new year and make solid progress on the rosy path in the future.
Pangoal Institution
December 30, 2024
