在过去的几年里，支付方式发生了翻天覆地的变化——点击支付变得更加普遍，传统金融机构正在探索区块链，而生成式人工智能正成为将欺诈保护率提高 300% 的关键。边界不再是全球贸易的障碍，即时获得收入是人们的期望，而不是一种福利，纸质支票和实体钱包正迅速成为博物馆的藏品——至少在我们最年轻的人群中是如此。
科技的不断进步每天都在吸引着越来越多的人和企业进入数字经济，这也推动了对可信交互的需求，并提高了简单性和无缝性的要求。例如，为了使在线结账与实体结账一样高效，万事达卡最近宣布，到 2030 年，得益于标记化、生物识别身份验证和Click to Pay 数字钱包的结合，购物者甚至不需要实体卡号，也不必输入密码或一次性代码即可在线进行交易。
良性循环仍在继续。技术融合的速度比以往任何时候都快，不断完善功能，产生新的用例，甚至创造新的商业模式。我们采访了万事达卡公司的多位领导人，以下是他们认为可能影响我们 2025 年支付方式的 10 个趋势。
Within just the past few years, paymentshave transformed entirely — tap to pay has become even more prevalent,traditional financial institutions are exploring blockchain, and generative AIis emerging as critical to boosting fraud protection rates by as much as 300%.Borders are no longer barriers to global trade, instant access to earnings isthe expectation, not a perk, and paper checks and physical wallets are fastbecoming museum pieces — at least among the youngest of us.
Continued advances in tech are usheringmore people and businesses into the digital economy every day, and it’s drivingdemand for trusted interactions and raising the bar for simplicity andseamlessness. For example, in an effort to make online checkout as efficient asphysical, Mastercard recently announced that by 2030, shoppers won’t even needa physical card number or have to punch in a password or one-time code to makea transaction online, thanks to the combination of tokenization, biometric authenticationand the Click to Pay digital wallet.
And the virtuous circle keeps spinning.Technologies are coalescing faster than ever, refining capabilities, generatingnew use cases and even creating new business models. We spoke with a range ofMastercard leaders across the company, and here are 10 trends they say couldimpact that way we pay in 2025.
01 利用人工智能战胜人工智能诈骗分子
网络犯罪分子已经在利用生成式人工智能制作深度伪造视频和超级个性化网络钓鱼信息来窃取金钱或数据，预计到 2025 年，网络犯罪的年犯罪金额将增长到10 万亿美元。但这种武器也是工具，因为公司正在训练人工智能模型来实时预测和消除威胁。万事达卡的Decision Intelligence Pro使用生成式人工智能扫描 1 万亿个数据点，在不到 50 毫秒的时间内预测交易是否真实，将欺诈保护率平均提高 20%，在某些情况下甚至提高 300%。在英国，万事达卡的消费者欺诈风险解决方案使用人工智能来检测授权支付诈骗，并在受害者账户资金流出之前阻止它们。
01 Outsmarting AI fraudsters ... with AI
Cyber criminals are already harnessinggenerative AI to produce deep-fake videos and uber-personalized phishingmessages to steal money or data, and cybercrime is expected to grow to $10trillion annually in 2025. But this weapon is also a tool, as companies aretraining AI models to predict and neutralize threats in real time. Mastercard’sDecision Intelligence Pro uses gen AI to scan 1 trillion data points to predictin less than 50 milliseconds whether a transaction is likely to be genuine ornot, boosting fraud protection rates by an average of 20% and as much as 300%in some instances. In the U.K., Mastercard’s Consumer Fraud Risk solution usesAI to detect authorized payment scams and stop them before money even leavesthe victim’s account.
02 小企业，大工具箱
在疫情期间幸存下来并蓬勃发展的小型企业往往是那些迅速采用电子支付、电子商务和其他数字接触点的企业。但线上业务只是冰山一角。小型企业越来越能够使用以前无法获得或分散在众多不同平台中难以管理的各种数字工具和服务。专门针对小型企业需求而定制的集中式平台让业主能够自动执行管理任务并创建个性化的营销和忠诚度活动，并通过数据驱动的洞察来指导决策。
02 Small business, bigger toolboxes
The small businesses that survived — andindeed thrived — during the pandemic were often the ones that quickly embracedelectronic payments, e-commerce and other digital touchpoints. But an onlinepresence is only the tip of the iceberg. Small businesses are increasingly ableto access a wide range of digital tools and services previously out of reach,or scattered among so many different platforms that they were difficult tomanage. Centralized platforms uniquely tailored to the needs of small businessesare letting owners automate administrative tasks and create personalizedmarketing and loyalty campaigns, with data-driven insights to guidedecision-making.
03 数字包容的新时代
在发展中国家和新兴市场，数字钱包正日益扮演着银行账户的角色，并吸引了绝大多数消费者和企业。虽然这些数字钱包通过提供简单、方便和实惠的体验，直接解决了无银行账户人群的问题，但在为国际消费者提供传统的基于卡的支付连接方面却存在脱节。为了解决这一问题，万事达卡推出了本地支付 (Mastercard Pay Local)，让持卡人能够将他们的信用卡或借记卡与本地数字钱包关联起来，这样他们就可以在商家购物，而无需设置或充值预付账户。数字钱包将继续发展成为综合平台，整合支付、身份、忠诚度甚至医疗保健，这是人们日常生活中必不可少的方式。领导者将是那些创造直观、可互操作生态系统的人。
03 A new era of digital inclusion
In developing and emerging markets, digitalwallets are increasingly playing the role of a bank account and capturing thelarge majority of consumers and businesses. While these digital wallets areaddressing unbanked populations head-on by delivering simple, convenient andaffordable experiences, there’s been a disconnect in connecting traditional,card-based payments for international consumers. To help solve this, MastercardPay Local was launched to make it possible for cardholders to link their creditor debit cards to a local digital wallet — allowing them to shop at merchantswithout needing to set up or top up a prepaid account. Digital wallets willcontinue to evolve into comprehensive platforms, integrating payments,identity, loyalty and even health care — an essential way for people tonavigate their daily lives. The leaders will be those who create intuitive,interoperable ecosystems.
04 按需数字身份
可信身份是数字经济的基础，它使人们能够完全放心地以他们想要的方式、地点和时间进行互动。生物识别、机器学习和身份洞察已经在客户整个旅程中增强了身份验证。密钥的采用（无密码身份验证，通常由用户的生物识别技术提供支持）正在推动这一进程，并将在 2025 年获得发展势头。我们将开始看到数字身份推动医疗保健、教育和公共服务领域的体验，人们将能够有选择地与任何人分享自己的身份，没有任何摩擦，而且以隐私为中心。例如，在欧洲，万事达卡正在推出一项服务，允许商家验证消费者是否符合通过其支付卡购买某些商品或服务的标准——无需上传文件。
04 Digital identity on demand
A trusted identity is the foundation of thedigital economy, enabling people to interact how, where and when they want withcomplete confidence. Biometrics, machine learning and identity insights arealready supercharging authentication throughout a customer’s journey. Theadoption of passkeys — passwordless authentication most often powered by users’biometrics — is propelling this and will gain momentum in 2025. We’ll start tosee digital identity fueling experiences in health care, education and public services,where people will be able to selectively share their identity with anyone,without friction and with privacy at the center. In Europe, for example,Mastercard is launching a service that allows merchants to verify that aconsumer meets the criteria to purchase certain goods or services through theirpayment card — no uploading of documents necessary.
05 让B2B变得像ABC一样简单
企业支付向数字化转型的速度较慢，但随着企业意识到虚拟卡的好处，这种情况正在改变。虚拟卡是随机生成的临时卡号，与具有既定信用额度的资金账户相关联。虚拟卡可实现自动对账，减少人为错误，并为企业提供实时数据洞察和对支出的更多控制。通过将支付嵌入企业资源规划软件，企业能够进行实时支付、防止欺诈并更有效地管理成本。对于小型企业而言，到 2025 年，嵌入式金融的总市场价值可能高达 1240 亿美元。对于这些企业而言，可能性无穷无尽，从客户忠诚度应用程序和数字钱包到会计软件和购物车平台。
05 Making B2B as easy as ABC
Corporate payments have been slower toevolve to the digital world, but that’s changing as businesses realize thebenefits of virtual cards — temporary card numbers randomly generated andlinked to a funding account that has an established line of credit. It createsautomated reconciliation that cuts down on human error and offers companiesreal-time data insights and more control over spending. By embedding paymentsin enterprise resource planning software, businesses are able to make real-timepayments, prevent fraud and manage costs more efficiently. For smallbusinesses, the total market for embedded finance could be worth up to $124billion in 2025. For these enterprises the possibilities are endless, fromcustomer loyalty apps and digital wallets tp accounting software and shoppingcart platforms.
06 结账界面焕然一新
目前，非接触式支付占万事达卡网络上每三笔面对面购买中的两成以上，该技术在推动快速、安全消费者支付方面已经占据了主导地位。但是，该技术的作用远不止购物者在店内刷卡或刷手机那么简单。手机触碰技术可以将任何设备变成支付受理终端，这种技术已经让从个体经营者到大型零售商的商家能够轻松接受支付，减少了对复杂结账基础设施的需求，缩短了等待时间，还有其他好处。随着物理和数字体验不断融合，我们将看到触碰技术在各种商业用例中的更多应用，从验证交易到立即将卡添加到移动钱包，甚至向朋友和家人汇款。
06 Checkout gets a glow-up
With contactless payments now accountingfor more than two out of every three in-person purchases on the Mastercardnetwork, the tech has cemented its place in driving fast and secure consumerpayments. But there’s more to the tech beyond a shopper simply tapping theircard or phone in the store. Tap on Phone technology, which turns any deviceinto a payment acceptance terminal, is already democratizing acceptance formerchants, from solopreneurs to larger retailers, reducing the need for complexcheckout infrastructure and shortening wait times, among other benefits. Asphysical and digital experiences continue to converge, we’ll see moreapplications of tapping tech across a range of commerce use cases, fromverifying a transaction to instantly adding your card to your mobile wallet oreven sending money to friends and family.
07 实时时代来临
目前，超过 100 个国家/地区都已启用实时支付系统，预计到 2028 年，实时支付交易将达到 5750 亿笔，占全球所有电子支付的 27%。实时支付为消费者提供了更多支付和收款方式的选择。随着各国逐步将国内支付系统互联互通，跨境支付将变得更加无缝。实时支付与其他支付形式（如央行数字货币和数字资产）之间的互操作性增强，将使传统银行账户和数字货币账户之间的交易变得更加容易。
07 Real time comes of age
Real-time payments systems are nowavailable in more than 100 countries, with 575 billion RTP transactionsexpected by 2028, representing 27% of all electronic payments globally.Real-time payments are providing greater consumer choice of ways to pay and bepaid. As countries move to interlinktheir domestic schemes, cross-border payments will become more seamless. Andmore interoperability between real-time payments and other forms of payment,such as central bank digital currencies and digital assets, will make it easierto enable transactions between traditional bank accounts and digital currencyaccounts.
08 协作生态系统的兴起
世界是如此紧密相连，技术发展如此迅速，单打独斗已无法取得成功。合作伙伴关系正在从单纯的战术协调和纸面协议发展为真正的合作，共同创造解决方案并加速大规模创新。金融机构、企业、政府和金融科技公司正在嵌入技术、提高效率、释放价值并增强体验。金融科技公司将继续在简化金融服务和提供集成且可访问的工具方面发挥关键作用，以扩大数字经济的好处并确保信任。
08 The rise of collaborative ecosystems
The world is so interconnected andtechnology is evolving so quickly that success can no longer happen in a silo.Partnerships are evolving from mere tactical alignments and agreements on paperto genuine collaborations that co-create solutions and accelerate large-scaleinnovation. Financial institutions, corporations, governments and fintechs areembedding technologies, driving efficiencies, unlocking value and enhancingexperiences. Fintechs in particular will continue to play a key role insimplifying financial services and delivering integrated and accessible toolsthat expand the benefits of the digital economy and ensure trust.
09 区块链银行
近年来，区块链和数字资产的成熟已证明该技术具有增强全球金融和商业体系的变革潜力。加密货币、稳定币和代币化资产已从概念走向商业化，特别是与它们对现实世界资产的适用性有关。2025 年，押注区块链技术来提高速度、安全性和效率，尤其是在 B2B 和商业支付方面。要做到这一点，它将继续需要与加密原生者和金融机构建立战略合作伙伴关系，以创建更高效、更安全的支付解决方案。
09 Banking on blockchain
The maturation of blockchain and digitalassets in recent years has proved that the technology has transformativepotential to enhance global finance and commerce systems. Cryptocurrencies,stablecoins and tokenized assets have moved from concept to commercialization,particularly as relates to their applicability to real-world assets. In 2025,bet on blockchain technology to enhance speed, security and efficiency,especially when it comes to B2B and commercial payments. Its ability to do sowill continue to require strategic partnership with crypto natives andfinancial institutions alike to create more efficient and secure paymentsolutions.
10 代币经济
代币化是万事达卡实现到 2030 年消除手动输入卡的愿景的关键，它正在推动车载商务的普及（双关语），但它在卡支付之外的潜力是巨大的。例如，代币化技术可以让消费者在数字平台上与商家分享他们的购物习惯和偏好，以获得更多相关优惠和折扣，而无需透露他们的个人数据。通过区块链技术对资产进行代币化可以数字化和优化任何经济活动——从资本市场到贸易融资，再到交换土地所有权或碳信用额。
10 The token economy
Tokenization is key to Mastercard’s visionto eliminate manual card entry by 2030, and it’s driving the adoption of in-carcommerce (pun intended), but its potential beyond card payments is immense. Forexample, tokenization technology can enable consumers to share their shoppinghabits and preferences with merchants on digital platforms to access morerelevant offers and discounts, all without revealing their personal data. Andthe tokenization of assets through blockchain technology can digitize and optimizeany economic activity — from capital markets to trade finance to exchanging aland title or a carbon credit.
原作：Vicki Hyman 翻译：谷歌翻译略有完善 原文：MASTERCARD
