来源：国政学人
期刊简介
《国际研究季刊》（International Studies Quarterly）是国际研究协会（ISA）的旗舰期刊，旨在发布与国际研究中重要的理论、实证和规范主题相关的领先学者研究。本刊发表的文章以某种有意义的方式参与了跨越国家边界的政治、经济、社会或文化进程，旨在提供解释性难题的答案、展示原创性研究、探索国际理论中的主题，或以其他方式介入学科辩论。尽管本刊文章通常具有政策含义——我们鼓励作者阐明这些含义，但与它们的学术目的相比，这些含义是次要的。
本期目录
1
无政府状态作为设计者：竞争压力、技术与国家内部结构
Anarchy as Architect: Competitive Pressure, Technology, and the Internal Structure of States
2
世界贸易组织作为多边扩散枢纽：世贸组织争端中的制度学习与优惠贸易协定的设计
The WTO as Multilateral Diffusion Hub: Institutional Learning in WTO Disputes and the Design of Preferential Trade Agreements
3
无政府状态与帝国：世界征服者与国际体系
Anarchy and Empire: World-Conquerors and International Systems
4
外包的帝国：离岸金融时代的国际货币权力
Outsourcing Empire: International Monetary Power in the Age of Offshore Finance
5
负债时，任命女性？重新审视援助、债务和非洲内阁中女性的纳入
When in Debt, Appoint Women? A Re-Examination of Aid, Debt, and the Inclusion of Women in African Cabinets
6
部落民主：南叙利亚部落的战时社会秩序及其转型
Tribalocracy: Tribal Wartime Social Order and Its Transformation in Southern Syria
7
人权促进与民主盟友
Human Rights Promotion and Democratic Allies
8
联盟与内战干预
Alliances and Civil War Intervention
9
跨国主义与数字时代的民粹主义网络：加拿大与自由车队
Transnationalism and Populist Networks in a Digital Era: Canada and the Freedom Convoy
10
优惠贸易协定与领导人的商业经验
Preferential Trade Agreements and Leaders’ Business Experience
内容摘要
无政府状态作为设计者：竞争压力、技术与国家内部结构
作者：Morgan MacInnes，加拿大多伦多大学政治学博士候选人；Ben Garfinkel，牛津大学研究员，人工智能治理中心（GovAI）主任；Allan Dafoe，英国牛津大学牛津马丁人工智能治理倡议高级顾问兼访问学者，谷歌DeepMind前沿安全与治理主任兼首席科学家。
摘要：国家的内部制度结构极大地影响着公民的福祉。然而，国家并非可以完全自由地采取任何内部形式。源于无政府状态的竞争压力将可行的国内制度范围，限制在了那些不会带来显著劣势的制度上。本文认为技术变革可以改变不同国家形式的相对竞争力，进而提升或降低人类福祉。通过对具有竞争意义的技术的宏观历史调查，本文为这一论点提供了实证支持。本文得出结论，无政府状态的真正代价比普遍认识的要更高，因为竞争压力可能迫使国家演变成对其居民福祉不利的形态。此外，提高人类福祉的国家形式的采纳，往往与技术创新和人类行动力一样重要。最后，某些看似有益的技术发明可能会通过提高不平等国家形式的竞争力而降低人类福祉。
The internal institutional structures of states greatly impact their citizens’ welfare. However, states are not at complete liberty to adopt any internal form. Competitive pressure arising from anarchy limits the range of viable domestic institutions to those that do not impose a significant disadvantage. We argue that technological change can alter the relative competitiveness of different state forms and, by extension, improve or degrade human welfare. We empirically support this argument through a macrohistorical survey of competitively significant technologies. We conclude that the true costs of international anarchy are greater than commonly appreciated, as competitive pressure may force states to evolve into forms detrimental to the welfare of their inhabitants. Moreover, the adoption of state forms that improve human well-being is often driven by technological change as much as human agency. Finally, the invention of seemingly beneficial technologies may decrease human well-being by improving the competitiveness of inegalitarian state forms.
世界贸易组织作为多边扩散枢纽：世贸组织争端中的制度学习与优惠贸易协定的设计
作者：Kenneth T Stiller，牛津大学国际关系系博士候选人。
摘要：制度并非在真空中创造——但是现有制度如何影响设计选择呢？利用全球贸易秩序的碎片化，本文强调了经验的相关性，并认为世界贸易组织（WTO）的制度影响力通过其作为多边扩散枢纽的核心地位超越了其管辖范围：当国家谈判优惠贸易协定（PTAs）时，世贸组织先前的争端解决经验塑造了争端解决机制（DSMs）的设计。国家官僚机构在参与多边贸易争端时经历制度学习过程，随后达成的PTAs中的DSMs与世贸组织的机构相似，从而促进了它们——去中心化的——向PTAs网络的传播。对于官僚能力较低的国家，学习效应尤为显著。采用一种新颖的、统一的DSMs概念化方法，以申诉方权利为标准，表明这一扩散过程的结果通常导致PTAs中申诉方权利水平的提高。重要的是，制度学习不仅仅是模仿：国家还会考虑到贸易伙伴先前的争端经验，将制度设计适应于个别背景。双重实证策略和与PTA谈判者的访谈证实了学习效应及其在PTA谈判中的相关性。
Institutions are not created in a vacuum—but how do extant institutions influence design choices? Leveraging fragmentation in the global trade order, this paper stresses the relevance of experience and argues that the institutional influence of the World Trade Organization (WTO) extends beyond its jurisdiction through its centrality as multilateral diffusion hub: When states negotiate preferential trade agreements (PTAs), previous dispute settlement experiences in the WTO shape the design of dispute settlement mechanisms (DSMs). National bureaucracies undergo institutional learning processes when participating in multilateral trade disputes and subsequently conclude PTAs with DSMs that are similar to the institutions of the WTO, thus fostering their—decentralized—spread to the network of PTAs. The learning effect is particularly pronounced for states with low bureaucratic capacity. Employing a novel, unitary conceptualization of DSMs in terms of complainant rights shows that the results of this diffusion process generally entail increased levels of complainant rights in PTAs. Importantly, institutional learning is more than mere emulation: States also adapt institutional design to individual context by considering the prior dispute experience of their trading partners. A dual empirical strategy and interviews with PTA negotiators corroborate the learning effect and its relevance during PTA negotiations.
无政府状态与帝国：世界征服者与国际体系
作者：Andrew Phillips，澳洲昆士兰大学政治科学与国际研究学院国际关系与战略学副教授，特别关注大国竞争与不对称暴力如何推动世界政治的变革性变化；J. C. Sharman，英国剑桥大学政治与国际研究系教授，其研究主要分为两大方向：其一聚焦于全球洗钱、腐败及避税天堂的监管问题；其二则涉及近代早期世界的国际关系以及国际体系的历史演变。
摘要：为什么一些国际体系以稳定的多极性为特征，而在其他地方征服则产生了统一的帝国？本文通过对比欧洲多极无政府状态巩固的传统历程与奥斯曼帝国对近东的征服以及满族的一统华夏来解释这种差异。奥斯曼人和满族人都通过融合草原与定居民族的军事技术，发展出了进行系统性征服的能力。此外，他们都克服了征服的合法化梯度。奥斯曼帝国和满族利用文化治国术来避免了制衡联盟的形成，同时鼓励追随与合作。文化治国术包括策略性地利用既有的帝国统治象征，以及采用多层次合法性策略，依次吸引多个分化的受众群体。在欧洲，军事障碍与宗教教派的观念分歧挫败了潜在的征服者。因此，多极无政府状态是国际政治中的一种偶然产物，而非恒定存在，它可能被军事强大且文化适应能力强的“世界征服者”所终结。
Why are some international systems characterized by stable multipolarity while elsewhere conquest produces universal empires? We explain this variation through contrasting the conventional story of the consolidation of multipolar anarchy in Europe against the Ottoman conquest of the Near East and the Manchu conquest of greater China. Both the Ottomans and the Manchus developed the capacity for systemic conquest via hybridizing steppe and sedentary military techniques. Furthermore, both surmounted the legitimation gradient of conquest. The Ottomans and Manchus used cultural statecraft to prevent balancing coalitions and encourage bandwagoning and collaboration. Cultural statecraft comprised strategies of co-opting preexisting symbols of imperial rule and employing multivocal legitimacy strategies to sequentially appeal to multiple segmented audiences. In Europe, both military obstacles and religious confessional ideational divisions frustrated would-be conquerors. Multipolar anarchy is thus a contingent outcome in international politics rather than a constant, which can be extinguished by militarily powerful and culturally agile “world conquerors.”
外包的帝国：离岸金融时代的国际货币权力
作者：Andrea Binder，德国柏林自由大学研究员，研究专注于国际政治经济学和人道主义政治。
摘要：离岸金融允许外国银行在离岸司法管辖区法律下创造美元。这样如何以及为何影响国际货币权力？从概念上讲，本文认为离岸金融将国家与银行共同创造货币的权力分割开来，跨越边界，将美元与主要是英式的法律结合起来。从实证上讲，本文证明在离岸地区，即美国司法管辖区之外创造的美元数量超过了在美国境内创造的美元。离岸金融增加了流动性，但风险更高，并且导致了货币发行国、离岸金融中心、借款人和全球银行之间的跨境纠缠。简言之，离岸金融改变了货币内在的权力结构。因此，国际货币权力已变为获取离岸美元的能力，并结合决定国际流动性及设定、选择或规避相关规则的能力。这种权力受限于货币所包含的层级化社会信用关系。美国的国际货币权力已经成为间接统治的一个实例，全球银行被授权创造美元的特权。与间接统治常见的情况一样，它涉及到地理范围与权力集中之间的艰难平衡。
Offshore finance allows foreign banks to create US dollars under the laws of an offshore jurisdiction. How and why does this affect international monetary power? Conceptually, I argue that offshore finance bifurcates across borders the shared power of the state and banks to create money, combining the US dollar with mostly English law. Empirically, I demonstrate that more US dollars are created offshore outside US jurisdiction than onshore within it. Offshore finance increases liquidity, at higher risk, and leads to a cross-border entanglement of issuing country, offshore financial centers, borrowers, and global banks. In short, offshore finance changes the power inherent in money. Consequently, international monetary power has become the ability to get access to offshore dollars in combination with the capacity to determine international liquidity and to set, select, or circumvent the related rules. It is constrained by the hierarchically organized social credit relations that money consists of. The international monetary power of the United States has become an instance of indirect rule with global banks having been delegated the prerogative of US dollar creation. As is common with indirect rule, it entails a difficult balancing act between geographical reach and centralization of power.
负债时，任命女性？重新审视援助、债务和非洲内阁中女性的纳入
作者：Marijke Breuning，美国北德克萨斯大学政治学荣誉教授；Seyma Akyol, 美国北德克萨斯大学政治学助理教授；Sung Min Yun，美国北德克萨斯大学政治学研究生。
摘要：援助依赖度和债务较高的国家是否更可能在内阁中任命女性？多项研究表明，这类国家倾向于取悦援助方和贷款方。本文聚焦非洲，检验领导人是否会响应国际激励，尤其是向援助方和贷款方发出信号，表明他们在政治决策中重视性别平等。尽管领导人对内阁的性别组成比立法机构有更多的直接控制权，但本文分析并未显示援助依赖和负债导致内阁或立法机构中女性数量增加。本文将援助依赖和负债操作化为接收国国民收入的比例，认为这更能反映援助和贷款接收国对外部压力的脆弱性。通过使用回归分析技术和多项稳健性检验对面板数据进行评估，本文的研究结果始终支持这样一种观点：非洲国家在与援助方的谈判中比外援文献所普遍认为的具有更强的谈判地位。
Are more aid-dependent and indebted countries more likely to include women in their cabinets? Several studies have suggested that such countries seek to please donors and lenders. Focusing on Africa, we test whether leaders respond to international incentives and, specifically, signal donors and lenders that they value gender equality in political decision-making. Although leaders have more direct control over the gender composition of the cabinet than the legislature, our analyses do not show that aid dependence and indebtedness result in more women in either the cabinet or the legislature. We operationalize aid dependence and indebtedness as a proportion of recipient gross national income, which we argue better reflects the aid and loan recipients’ vulnerability to external pressure. Using regression analysis techniques and multiple robustness checks to evaluate our panel data, our findings remain consistent with arguments that African states have stronger bargaining positions than the foreign aid literature has acknowledged.
部落民主：南叙利亚部落的战时社会秩序及其转型
作者：Abdullah al-Jabassini，美国约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院（SAIS）欧洲分校客座教授，维也纳中欧大学CIVICA博士后研究研究员。
摘要：本文在研究内战时引入了一个新现象：部落战争时期的社会秩序。提出的部落民主理论，或称部落统治，融合了内战研究、人类学和社会学的见解，为部落战区社会秩序及其转型提供了一个细致入微的描述。通过对叙利亚南部豪兰地区的广泛实地调查，该理论解释了本土反叛团体为了最大程度获取部落酋长给予的各种利益，是如何避免建立一种全新秩序形式的。相反，他们选择吸纳、重申并在既有的秩序下运作。这样做，反叛者进行最低限度的统治，将大部分地方事务交由受部落酋长密切监管的平民行动者处理。鉴于战时秩序的流动性和易变性，本文提出的理论提供了一个有力的解释框架，用以说明战时社会秩序形式从平民模式向由反叛者主导的模式过渡。这一理论和实证结果扩展了我们对基于地方化和血缘关系的团结形式、反叛组织的起源、战时社会秩序的来源、平民能动性和反叛统治下部落酋长所扮演角色的理解。
This article introduces a new phenomenon in the study of civil war: tribal wartime social order. The proposed theory of tribalocracy, or tribal rule, integrates insights from civil war studies, anthropology, and sociology to provide a nuanced account of social order and its transformation in tribal warzones. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in the Hauran region in southern Syria, the proposed theory explains how endogenous rebel groups, seeking to maximize a wide range of benefits rendered by tribal shaykhs, refrain from establishing a new form of order. Instead, they co-opt, reassert, and operate under a pre-existing order in reserve. In so doing, rebels rule minimally, leaving most of the local affairs in the hands of civilian actors closely monitored by tribal shaykhs. Given the fluid and volatile nature of wartime order, the proposed theory offers a compelling explanatory framework to account for the transition in the forms of wartime social order from a civilian model to one dominated by rebels. The theory and empirical results expand our understanding of the localized and kinship-based forms of solidarity, the origins of rebel organizations, the source of wartime social order, civilian agency, and the roles played by tribal shaykhs under rebel rule.
人权促进与民主盟友
作者：Yasuki Kudo，美国德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校政府系博士生。
摘要：军事联盟是否促进人权？学界和业界遍认为并非如此，因为国家主要为推进战略利益而缔结联盟，因此对成员国的国内政策兴趣不大。然而，本文主张某些国家可能关心其盟友的人权实践。具体而言，民主国家担心与侵犯人权的政府建立联盟关系会损害它们的声誉，因此敦促其盟友改善人权。然而，这种促进人权的动机受到限制，因为民主国家还需要保留与可能依赖镇压来维护内部安全的政府的联盟伙伴关系。对民主国家与威权国家之间联盟关系的实证分析支持了这一观点。拥有强大民主盟友的威权国家实施了相对先进的人权保护；然而，随着国内冲突风险的提高，这种关联性变得较弱。这些发现表明，在国际促进人权的背景下考虑民主盟友十分重要。
Do military alliances promote human rights? Scholars and practitioners generally believe they do not because states form alliances largely to advance their strategic interests and thus are not interested in members' domestic policies. I claim that some states may care about their allies' human rights practices. Specifically, democracies are concerned that alliance relationships with rights-abusing governments harm their reputation, and thus urge their allies to improve human rights. However, this rights-promoting motivation is constrained because democracies also need to preserve alliance partnerships with governments that may rely on repression for their internal security. Empirical analyses of alliance relationships between democracies and autocracies provide support for this argument. Autocracies with a powerful democratic ally implement relatively advanced human rights protection; however, this association becomes weaker as the risk of domestic conflict becomes higher. These findings suggest the importance of considering democratic allies in the international promotion of human rights.
联盟与内战干预
作者：Jesse C Johnson, 美国德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校政府系副教授，研究兴趣集中在国际安全与合作领域，同时工作聚焦于军事联盟政治；Brett Ashley Leeds, 美国莱斯大学政治学教授，主要研究国内政治如何影响国际冲突与合作以及国际制度；Burcu Savun，美国匹兹堡大学政治学教授，专攻国际关系。
摘要：在内战中，政府相较于反叛组织拥有多种结构性优势，其中之一是更强的能力来履行可信的国际承诺。政府可以利用外交政策承诺来激励其他国家为其提供军事支持或拒绝支持其叛乱组织。本文分析了1975年至2017年间的内战冲突中的国际干预，发现某些类型的联盟与亲政府的干预有关，但并非所有联盟都能起到一样的作用。具有协商承诺的联盟与非军队支持形式的干预有关，如提供物资、训练、情报等，而防御条约则与军队和非军队支持都有关。互不侵犯条约与中立条约的成员国不太会为支持政府而进行干预，但向反政府武装提供支持的可能性也更低。本文认为，联盟并非仅仅是共同利益的代表；它们有时涉及旨在助力政府击败反叛者的特定交易。本文证据表明，这些协议成功地激励了预期的行为。政府利用国际安全政策来保护国内外的现状，这既影响了我们对内战的理解，也影响了我们对联盟政治的理解。
Governments have a number of structural advantages over rebel groups in civil wars, one of which is their greater ability to make credible international commitments. Governments can use foreign policy commitments to incentivize other states to provide them military support or deny support to their rebel groups. We analyze international intervention in civil conflicts between 1975 and 2017 and find that some kinds of alliances are associated with pro-government intervention, but all alliances are not equal. Alliances with consultation commitments are associated with interventions that provide materiel, training, intelligence, and/or other forms of non-troop support, while defense pacts are associated with both troop and non-troop support. Members of nonaggression and neutrality pacts are not more likely to intervene to support the government but are less likely to provide support to anti-government forces. We argue that alliances are not simply proxies for common interests; they sometimes involve specific bargains designed to aid a government in defeating rebels. Our evidence suggests that these agreements are successful at incentivizing the intended behavior. Governments use international security policy to protect the status quo domestically as well as internationally, and this affects our understanding both of civil wars and of alliance politics.
跨国主义与数字时代的民粹主义网络：加拿大与自由车队
作者：Jean-Christophe Boucher, 加拿大卡尔加里大学政治学系助理教授；Lauren Rutherglen, 加拿大卡尔加里大学公共政策硕士候选人；So Youn Kim，加拿大卡尔加里大学公共政策学院数据分析师。
摘要：自二十一世纪第二个十年以来，全球右翼民粹主义运动的增长和成功非常显著。实际上，欧洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲和北美的民粹主义政党在选举中取得了巨大成功，塑造了一个在政治领域内由人民发起并为人民服务的运动。民粹主义运动在多大程度上在跨国层面影响其他国家类似的计划？研究表明，跨国民粹主义强调 “人民” 是一个 “横向的、基于成员身份的群体，其成员身份以国家间的进出逻辑为前提，这使得民粹主义的国内运动能够参与并共享一项全球意识形态议程” 。本文旨在理解并衡量民粹主义在多大程度上已成为一场跨国运动，并确定民粹主义是如何通过线上政治参与跨越国界传播的。为探究这一问题，本文在2022年1月至2月加拿大自由车队运动期间，收集了超过670万条X/推特的数字追踪数据。自由车队获得了成千上万公民的支持，揭示了民粹主义意识形态能够在国际边界间无目的地传播的能力。本文使用了一种应用于文本分析的深度学习模型来执行分类任务，以测量运动期间的民粹主义叙事。
The growth and success of right-wing populist movements globally has been remarkable since the early 2010s. Indeed, populist parties in Europe, Asia, Latin America, and North America have received tremendous electoral success, shaping a movement for the people and by the people within the political sphere. To what extent do populist movements influence other such programs across national borders? Research has suggested that globalization has facilitated the spread of populist ideology. Transnational populism emphasizes the “people” as a “horizontal, membership-based collective with membership premised on an in/out logic between nations, allowing populist national movements to engage and share a global ideological program. This paper seeks to understand and measure to what extent populism has become a transnational movement and identify how populism moves across national borders through online political participation. To explore this question, we collected over 6.7 million digital trace data on X/Twitter during Canada’s January–February 2022 Freedom Convoy movement. Receiving support from thousands of citizens, the Freedom Convoy revealed the ability of populist ideology to move aimlessly across international borders. We used a deep-learning model applied to text analysis to implement a classification task to measure populist narratives during the movement.
优惠贸易协定与领导人的商业经验
作者：Nicola Nones，加拿大多伦多大学蒙克全球事务与公共政策学院博士后研究员。
摘要：许多理论试图解释特惠贸易协定（PTAs）的决定因素及其设计。然而，现有研究几乎完全关注结构性或国内因素，而忽略了个人领导人。本文提出并检验了关于行政领导人此前商业职业生涯及其上任后贸易合作政策的新理论主张。本文构建了一个关于行政首脑商业管理经验的新数据集，并在一个涵盖1948年至2009年185个国家的时间序列横截面情境中检验本文的主要论点。为了建立因果关系，本文采用工具变量策略，并利用由于突然死亡或在职期间终末期疾病导致的外生转变。结果显示，商人出身的政治领导人更有可能签订特惠贸易协定，并更倾向于签订更深层次的PTAs。这一关系在1988年加拿大贸易协议的说明性案例研究中得到了进一步探讨。商业经验的实质影响与文献中确立的因素相当，如政权类型，并且在多种测试、规范、子样本和商业经验测量中都是稳健的。
Many theories attempt to explain the determinants of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and their design. Existing accounts, however, focus almost exclusively on structural or domestic factors and ignore individual leaders. In this paper, I develop and test novel theoretical claims regarding executive leaders’ prior career in business and their trade cooperation policy once in office. I construct a new dataset on the heads of the executive’s business managerial experience and test my main claims in a time-series-cross-sectional setting covering 185 countries from 1948 to 2009. To establish causality, I rely on an instrumental variable strategy and leverage exogenous transitions due to sudden deaths or terminal illness in office. The results show that businesspersons-turned-politicians are more likely to enter PTAs and are more likely to sign deeper PTAs. The relationship is further investigated in an illustrative case study of the 1988—Canada trade deal. The substantive effect of business experience is comparable to that of established factors in the literature, such as regime type, and is robust to numerous tests, specifications, subsamples, and measurements of business experience.
译者：常靖婧，日内瓦高级国际关系与发展研究院，研究兴趣为粮食能源/环境交叉全球治理。
审校 | 赖永桢
排版 | 杨语灵
本文源于《国际研究季刊》（ISQ）Vol.68, No. 4, December 2024，本文为公益分享，服务于科研教学，不代表本平台观点。如有疏漏，欢迎指正。
