决策者｜COP29：气候融资亟需全球合作

Editor's note: Decision Makers is a global platform for decision makers to share their insights on events shaping today's world. Djoomart Otorbaev is a former prime minister of Kyrgyzstan, a professor of the Belt and Road School of Beijing Normal University and a member of Nizami Ganjavi International Center. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

编者按：决策者是一个全球平台，供决策者分享他们对影响当今世界之事件的见解。卓奥玛尔特·奥托尔巴耶夫是吉尔吉斯斯坦前总理、北京师范大学 “一带一路 ”学院特聘教授、尼扎米·甘伽维国际中心成员。文章仅代表作者的观点，而非本台观点。

The 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), better known as COP29, kicked off in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 11.

《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方会议第二十九次会议（COP29）于11月11日在阿塞拜疆首都巴库开幕。

The event's main objective is to develop and implement ambitious yet realistic recommendations that participating countries will approve as national policies. These policies aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Nearly 30 years after the first Conference of the Parties (COP) in Berlin, the goal remains to enhance international efforts to restrict global warming to pre-industrial levels and prevent catastrophic damage to the planet. At this year's conference, countries are focusing on discovering new funding sources.

会议的主要目标是制定和实施既有雄心又切实可行的倡议，并推动各国将其转化为国家政策，力争在本世纪末将全球气温升幅控制在1.5摄氏度以内。第一次缔约方会议在柏林举行至今已近三十年，大会的总体目标仍然是加强国际努力，将全球气温升幅控制在工业化前水平，以免地球遭受毁灭性灾难。在今年的会议上，各国重点关注如何拓展新的资金来源。

Given the current delays in achieving carbon emission reduction targets set by the Paris Agreement, urgent actions are needed to generate worldwide attention and additional investment to combat climate change. Preliminary documents and discussions at COP29 indicate that the resolution will likely urge all countries to expand further their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to reduce carbon emissions. Countries will be required to submit updated documents by 2025, emphasizing a gradual yet decisive phase-out of fossil fuels and an increase in the use of renewable energy.

鉴于目前实现《巴黎协定》设定的碳减排目标进展迟缓，全球亟需采取更有力措施，引起广泛关注并吸引更多投资，共同应对气候变化。从COP29初步文件和讨论来看，会议决议可能会敦促各国进一步提高国家自主贡献力度，在碳减排上迈出坚实步伐。各国将被要求在2025年前提交更新的国家自主贡献方案，逐步但坚定地淘汰化石燃料，增加可再生能源的使用。

The host country Azerbaijan expects all participants to develop and approve their national adaptation plans (NAPs) by next year, highlighting the importance of increasing funding for these plans. Additionally, COP29 urges global financial institutions and the private sector to enhance climate finance and encourage investment in green innovation. The conference is also emphasizing plans to strengthen the recently established Loss and Damage Fund to support vulnerable communities, particularly in small island developing states and the least developed countries.

主办国阿塞拜疆期望各参会国在明年年底前能够制定并通过各自的国家适应计划，呼吁各国进一步加大对相关计划的资金支持。此外，COP29还呼吁全球金融机构与私营部门加大气候融资支持，鼓励绿色创新投资。会议还强调新设立的“损失和损害基金”必须得到强化，以支持脆弱社区，特别是小岛屿发展中国家和最不发达国家的脆弱社区。

COP29 is expected to approve 14 initiatives, one of the most significant being the proposal to establish a Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF) based in Baku. As the host country and a fossil fuel producer, Azerbaijan has indicated its willingness to make the initial contribution to establishing that fund. This facility aims to receive an initial contribution of $1 billion from fossil fuel-producing countries and companies. The fund's primary goal is to invest in renewable energy and support climate projects in developing nations. It is planned that any profits received by the fund will be reinvested in further projects.

COP29预计将批准14项倡议，其中最为重要的一项便是在巴库设立气候行动融资基金。作为主办国和化石燃料生产国，阿塞拜疆已表示愿意为设立该基金提供首笔资金。该基金的目标是从化石燃料生产国和公司募得10亿美元初始资金，主要用于投资可再生能源，支持发展中国家的气候项目。该基金的所有收益都将用于再投资新项目。

Based on previous estimates and current trends, global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to peak soon. However, progress in reducing these emissions is still behind schedule. Without significant reductions in emissions, the planet's average global temperature could increase by 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, leading to catastrophic consequences for humanity. However, achieving essential energy targets, such as tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency by 2030, could significantly help to reduce the emissions gap.

根据以往估算及当前趋势，全球二氧化碳排放量预计将很快达到峰值。减排进展却依旧滞后。如果再不大幅减排，到本世纪末，全球平均气温可能上升2.4摄氏度，给人类带来灾难性后果。然而，若能实现关键目标，例如到 2030 年实现可再生能源发电量增加三倍、能源效率提高一倍，则有望大大缩小排放差距。

Under the Paris Agreement, governments need to set a new climate finance target by 2025. The target, also known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), is anticipated to be approved in Baku. According to the 2022 report from the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance, most developing countries will need approximately $1 trillion per year by 2025 and $2.4 trillion annually by 2030 to meet their climate finance objectives

根据《巴黎协定》，各国政府需在2025年前设定一个新的气候融资目标。该目标被称为新的集体量化目标，预计将在巴库气候大会获得批准。根据气候融资问题独立高级别专家组2022年的报告，2025年前绝大多数发展中国家每年将需要约1万亿美元，2030年前每年将需要约2.4万亿美元，才能实现其气候融资目标。

A floating photovoltaic power station in Panji District, Huainan City of east China's Anhui Province, July 20, 2021. /Xinhua

Despite significant negative trends in financing the green transition, investment in renewable energy continues to rise. Total global energy investment is expected to exceed $3 trillion this year for the first time, with approximately $2 trillion allocated to clean technologies, including renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear energy, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, energy efficiency, and heat pumps. The remaining funds will be directed toward coal, gas, and oil.

尽管绿色转型融资面临重重困难，可再生能源投资仍在持续增长。今年，全球能源投资总额预计将首次突破3万亿美元，其中约2万亿美元将投入清洁技术，涵盖可再生能源、电动汽车、核能、电网、储能、低排放燃料、能源效率和热泵等领域。剩余资金将流向煤炭、天然气和石油等传统能源领域。

Last year, humanity reached a historic milestone when total investments in renewables and grid infrastructure surpassed spending on fossil fuels for the first time. However, emerging economies, excluding China, are still significantly underfunded in their transition to clean energy generation. Such investment is far less than required to meet the growing energy demand in these countries, where high capital costs hinder the development of new projects.

去年，人类在能源投资领域迎来历史性时刻——可再生能源和电网基础设施的投资总额首次超过化石燃料。然而，除中国外， 其它新兴经济体在向清洁能源转型的过程中仍然面临资金严重不足的问题。在这些国家，对清洁能源领域的投资远远不足以支持其日益增长的能源需求，高昂的融资成本阻碍了新项目的开发。

It is important to note that when the Paris Agreement was reached in 2015, total investment in renewable energy for electricity generation was double that of fossil fuel power plants. This year, that figure is projected to increase tenfold, with solar power investments exceeding all other electricity generation technologies combined. Solar power investment is expected to reach $500 billion this year, driven by rapidly falling solar panel prices that encourage new investments.

值得注意的是，2015年达成《巴黎协定》时，可再生能源发电的总投资是化石燃料发电的两倍。今年，这一差距预计将扩大至十倍，太阳能发电投资将超过所有其他发电技术的总和。太阳能电池板价格迅速下降，刺激了大量新投资的涌入，预计今年太阳能发电投资将达到5000亿美元。

China is set to invest at least $675 billion in clean energy this year, fueled by strong demand for solar power, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles. Europe and the U.S. follow, with clean energy investments of $370 billion and $315 billion, respectively. Together, these three economies account for over two-thirds of global clean energy investment, highlighting significant disparities in international capital flows into the new energy and the necessity to strengthen international cooperation to achieve more balanced renewable energy development.

在太阳能、锂电池和电动汽车强劲需求的推动下，中国今年在清洁能源领域的投资预计至少将达到6750亿美元。欧洲和美国紧随其后，其清洁能源投资额预计分别为3700亿美元和3150亿美元。这三个经济体的投资总额占全球清洁能源投资的三分之二以上，显示出国际资本在新兴能源领域投入上的显著地域差异。因此我们需要加强国际合作，实现更加均衡的可再生能源发展。

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