来源：谷河青年
当M1增速回升，
经济回暖之路还有多远？
M1 Growth Rebound:
Gauging the Path to Economic Recovery
文|周芳妍 吕文敏
2025年2月14日，人民银行公布的1月金融数据成为当日市场关注的焦点。
On February 14, 2025, the focus of the market turned to the financial data released by the People's Bank of China for January.
M1、M2增速及两者增速差变化趋势（图源：value500）其中，狭义货币M1的增速，连续四个月显著上行，呈现出引人注目的势态。1月狭义货币M1增速同比增长0.4%，增速正式步入正增长区间。
The growth rate of narrow money M1 has significantly increased for four consecutive months, presenting an impressive trend. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of narrow money M1 rose by 0.4%, officially entering the positive growth range.
M1表示流通中的现金加上企业等单位的活期存款，其增速的回升，被广泛视为经济流动性增强的信号，那这是否意味着经济回暖了呢？
The rebound in the growth rate of M1, which represents cash in circulation plus demand deposits of enterprises and other units, is widely regarded as a signal of enhanced economic liquidity. Does this imply that the economy is warming up?
1
M1增速回升，原因何在？
Why has the growth rate of M1 increased?
M1作为衡量流通中现金与企业活期存款的指标，其增速回升意味着企业投资需求和支付结算的需求增加。根据人民银行公布的数据，M1增速从2024年1月的5.9%，持续降至9月的-7.4%，12月回升至-1.4%%，今年1月增速正式步入正增长区间，同比增长0.4%。
M1, as an indicator measuring the sum of cash in circulation and demand deposits of enterprises and other units, its rebounding growth rate implies an increase in corporate investment demand and the need for payment settlements. According to data released by the People's Bank, the growth rate of M1 declined from 5.9% in January 2024 to -7.4% in September, before rebounding to -1.4% in December. In January of this year, the growth rate officially entered the positive growth range, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%.
中山大学岭南学院由林青助理教授认为M1短期增速上升的主要原因来自于需求端的影响。“具体而言，中央经济工作会议已经提出了今年要‘适度宽松的货币政策’，该政策使得企业家和投资者形成对未来低利率的预期，短期内资金持有的机会成本降低，企业家更愿意寻找好的投资机会。”
Assistant Professor You Linqing from Lingnan College Sun Yat-sen University, believes that the main reason for the short-term increase in the growth rate of M1 comes from the impact on the demand side. "Specifically, the Central Economic Work Conference has proposed a 'moderately loose monetary policy' for this year, which has led to entrepreneurs and investors forming expectations of low interest rates in the future. In the short term, the opportunity cost of holding funds has decreased, making entrepreneurs more willing to seek good investment opportunities."
近期，人民银行出台了一揽子增量货币政策。例如，在8月首次开展公开市场国债买卖操作后，9月，人民银行再次开展操作，净买入债券面值为2000亿元。此外，人民银行频频创新推出临时正逆回购、证券、基金、保险公司互换便利、公开市场买断式逆回购等新工具，传递出积极的市场信号，利于有效改善经济预期，市场信心提振，资本市场回稳。
Recently, the People's Bank of China has introduced a package of incremental financial policies. For example, after conducting open market operations with government bonds for the first time in August, in September, the People's Bank of China conducted operations again, net buying bonds with a face value of 200 billion yuan. In addition, the People's Bank of China has frequently innovated and introduced new tools such as temporary reverse repo agreements, securities, mutual exchange facilities for fund and insurance companies, and open market buy-back reverse repo operations, conveying positive market signals that help to effectively improve economic expectations, boost market confidence, and stabilize the capital market.
值得一提的是，11月8日，第十四届全国人大常委会第十二次会议公布了最新的化债方案，财政部部长蓝佛安在会议中补充，从2024年开始，我国将连续五年每年从新增地方政府专项债券中安排8000亿元，专门用于化债，累计可置换隐性债务4万亿元。叠加此次新增的6万亿元债务限额，直接增加地方化债资源10万亿元。根据各地发行计划，11月大概有超过1万亿元的置换债发行。
It is worth mentioning that on November 8, the 12th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress announced the latest debt-to-equity swap plan. Finance Minister Lan Fo'an added that starting from 2024, China will arrange 80 billion yuan annually from the issuance of new local government special bonds for debt-to-equity swaps for five consecutive years, specifically for debt restructuring, with a cumulative amount that can replace hidden debts of 4 trillion yuan. In addition to the additional 600 billion yuan debt limit introduced this time, it directly increases local debt-to-equity resources by 1 trillion yuan. According to the issuance plans of various regions, there were more than 1 trillion yuan in debt replacement bonds issued in November.
由林青认为，政府债券的增量发行也对M1增速具有重要影响。
You Linqing believes that the incremental issuance of government bonds also has a significant impact on the growth rate of M1.
第一，从供给端来看，政策债券的增量发行提高的了基础货币的发行规模。目前，基础货币的构成中大约5%来自于对政府的债权，11月份上万亿置换债的发行直接提高了基础货币的总量，这是M1增速的重要前提。
First, from the supply side, the incremental issuance of policy bonds increases the issuance scale of base currency. Currently, about 5% of the composition of base currency comes from government debt, and the issuance of over a trillion replacement bonds in November directly increases the total amount of base currency, which is an important premise for the growth rate of M1.
第二，从需求端来看，政府债券的发行，意味着政府购买增加，企业获得的更多的收入，同时，在低利率的预期下，企业持有活期存款的机会成本降低，M1相应也增加。
Second, from the demand side, the issuance of government bonds means increased government purchases, more income for businesses, and with the expectation of low interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding demand deposits for businesses decreases, leading to a corresponding increase in M1.
第三，近几年来，随着我国金融体系的完善，金融科技以及各种货币政策工具的完善，进一步提高了货币政策的传导效率。在此过程中，商业银行的货币再创造机制得到很大的提升，这也是导致M1增速的重要保障。
Third, in recent years, with the improvement of China's financial system, financial technology, and various monetary policy tools, the efficiency of monetary policy transmission has been further improved. In this process, the money creation mechanism of commercial banks has been greatly enhanced, which is also an important guarantee for the growth rate of M1.
除此之外，近期，房地产市场交易数据有所回暖，居民购房需求释放，资金从居民账户转移为房地产企业的活期存款，也会带动M1数据改善。
Additionally, in recent days, real estate market transaction data has shown signs of recovery, with residential housing demand being released. Funds transferred from residents' accounts to current deposits of real estate enterprises will also improve M1 data.
成都农商银行成都一支行行长刘欣表示：“根据我们接触到的信贷数据与市场反馈来看，我们可以明显的感受到成都客户的房贷需求是增加的，各家银行对这一块市场的争夺也非常激烈。”
Liu Xin, the manager of a branch of Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank, stated, "Based on the credit data we have encountered and market feedback, we can clearly feel that the housing loan demand of Chengdu customers is increasing, and various banks are fiercely
competing for this market segment."
近五年（2021年-2025年）1月份新增信贷、社融情况（图源：上海证券报）人民银行最新发布的金融数据也显示，1月，人民币贷款增加5.13万亿元，其中，个人住房贷款新增2447亿元，同比多增1519亿元。市场普遍认为这主要受益于提前还贷减少与商品房销售回暖，从而居民中长期信贷需求持续转暖。
The latest financial data released by the People's Bank shows that in January, RMB loans increased by 5.13 trillion yuan, with new personal housing loans amounting to 244.7 billion yuan, an increase of 151.9 billion yuan year-on-year. The market generally believes that this is mainly due to a reduction in early loan repayments and a rebound in commercial housing sales, leading to a sustained warming of long-term credit demand among residents.
2
M1口径调整：如何判断当前的经济活力？
The Caliber of M1 Adjusted: How to Judge the Current Economic Vitality?
M1增速回升被广泛视为经济流动性增强的信号，但实际的经济回暖情况可能更为复杂。正如由林青在接受采访时提到的：“从中期来看，确保M1增速回升的持续性很大程度取决于财政政策和货币政策的执行力度和规模。”
Although the rebound in M1 growth is widely regarded as a signal of enhanced economic liquidity, the actual situation of economic recovery may be more complex. As You Linqing mentioned in an interview, "From a medium-term perspective, the sustainability of the rebound in M1 growth largely depends on the implementation intensity and scale of fiscal and monetary policies."
从地方银行一线的观察来看，政策优惠和扶持是否真正提高了经济主体的借贷意愿呢？
However, from the perspective of local banks on the front line, have policy preferences and support truly increased the borrowing intentions of economic entities?
据刘欣的具体感知而言，“我所在的这个机构地处成都的三圈层，虽然说国家出台了很多政策，但客户不管是从经营还是消费来说，他们的借贷意愿还不是很明朗。”尽管M1增速显示经济流动性可能增强，但实体经济的借贷活动可能并未出现显著的回升，市场参与者的信心仍未完全恢复。
According to Liu Xin's specific perception, "The institution where I work is located in the third-tier area of Chengdu. Although the country has introduced many policies, the borrowing intentions of our customers, whether in terms of operations or consumption, are still not very clear, and there has not been such a fierce rebound." While the growth rate of M1 suggests enhanced economic liquidity, the lending activities in the real economy may not have shown a significant rebound, and market participants' confidence has yet to fully recover.
那么，经济真的回暖了吗？
So, has the economy really recovered?
为了深入理解这一问题，我们可以通过观察M1-M2负向剪刀差现象来探讨M1对于理解经济回暖的重要性。近半年来，M1-M2增速差在-6.6%至-14.2%之间波动，这一负向剪刀差意味着经济参与主体更倾向于储蓄而非投资，某种程度上反映了经济主体对未来经济情况的悲观预期。
To delve deeper into this issue, we can explore the significance of M1 in understanding economic recovery through observing the phenomenon of the negative M1-M2 scissor effect. Over the past six months, the growth rate difference between M1 and M2 has fluctuated between -10.8% and -14.2%. This negative scissor effect suggests that economic agents are more inclined towards saving rather than investing, reflecting a degree of pessimism regarding the future economic situation.
由林青表示，出现该现象的深层次原因是国际经济环境的不确定性，特朗普未来贸易政策走向、地缘政治风险以及国内经济下行压力等外部冲击，使企业面临利润下滑困境，不得不裁员或降薪；而员工出于预防性储蓄动机削减开销，将进一步拉低企业利润，形成经济下行的循环。
According to You Linqing, the underlying reason for this phenomenon lies in the uncertainty of the international economic environment, external shocks such as the uncertain future trade policies of Trump, geopolitical risks, and domestic economic downturn pressures. These factors have led to a scenario where businesses are facing profit declines, necessitating layoffs or salary cuts. In response, employees, driven by precautionary saving motives, are cutting expenses, further reducing business profits and creating a downward economic spiral.
这种复杂的经济形势凸显了准确衡量经济流动性的重要性，随着经济结构的转型和金融市场的发展，原有的M1统计口径已经不能充分反映经济中的现实购买力和流动性。
With the transformation of the economic structure and the development of the financial market, the adjustment of the M1 statistical caliber is particularly crucial.
国务院发展研究中心证券研究室副主任范建军认为：“实际上，在反映实体经济流动性变化或者说名义总需求变化方面，最可靠的指标是‘现金+活期存款’增速（真货币增速）指标，因为在现有M1统计量中，仅包含‘单位活期存款’统计项，而不包括‘个人活期存款’统计项。”这一定程度上限制了M1作为实体经济流动性变化指标的准确性。
Fan Jianjun, Deputy Director of the Securities Research Office of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed that "In fact, the most reliable indicator in reflecting the changes in the liquidity of the real economy or nominal total demand is the 'cash + demand deposit' growth rate (real money growth rate) indicator, because the existing M1 statistical volume only includes the 'corporate demand deposit' statistical item, and does not include the 'personal demand deposit' statistical item." This to some extent limits the accuracy of M1 as an indicator of changes in the liquidity of the real economy.
近期，人民银行决定，自2025年1月起，将个人活期存款和非银行支付机构客户备付金纳入M1统计口径。据人民银行解释，随着移动支付手段的快速发展，目前个人活期存款已具备转账支付功能，无需取现可随时用于支付，与单位活期存款流动性相同，应将其计入M1。同时，非银行支付机构客户备付金，也可以直接用于支付或交易，具有较强的流动性，也应纳入M1。这一调整将使M1更全面地反映经济中的现实购买力和流动性。
Recently, the People's Bank of China has decided that starting from January 2025, individual demand deposits and non-bank payment institution customer reserves will be included in the M1 calculation. According to the explanation provided by the People's Bank of China, with the rapid development of mobile payment methods, individual demand deposits now have transfer and payment capabilities, allowing them to be used for payments without the need for cash withdrawal, making their liquidity equivalent to that of corporate demand deposits and thus justifying their inclusion in M1. Additionally, customer reserves held by non-bank payment institutions can also be directly used for payments or transactions, possessing strong liquidity characteristics that warrant their inclusion in M1. This adjustment will make M1 more comprehensive in reflecting the real purchasing power and liquidity within the economy.
基于此，目前M1的统计口径在反映经济真实情况的准确性上存在局限，所以，尽管M1增速的回升是一个积极信号，但在分析经济流动性时，我们需要综合考虑多个经济指标，以获得一个相对全面的视角。
Based on this, the current M1 statistical scope has limitations in accurately reflecting the true state of the economy. Therefore, although the rebound in M1 growth is a positive signal, when analyzing economic liquidity, we need to take into account multiple economic indicators to obtain a relatively comprehensive perspective.
首先，社会消费品零售总额（社零）同比增速是衡量居民消费意愿的关键指标。国家统计局数据显示， 2024年12月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.7%，显著高于第二、第三季度，这一定程度上表明M1增速回升的时期内市场交易活跃度有所提高，居民消费意愿相对提升。
Firstly, the year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods (social retail) is a key indicator to measure the consumption intention of residents. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in December ,2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year,which was significantly higher than in the second and third quarters, which to some extent indicates that during the period of the rebound in M1 growth, market transaction activity has increased, and the consumption intention of residents has relatively improved.
2023年12月-2024年12月 社会消费品零售总额增速变化趋势
（图源：国家统计局《2024年12月份社会消费品零售总额增长3.7%》）
信贷市场方面，新增人民币贷款数据反映了企业和居民的借贷意愿。2025年1月新增人民币贷款5.13万亿元，明显超预期（市场预期为4.32万亿元左右），也高于去年同期水平（4.92万亿元），实现了今年新增信贷的“开门红”。然而，从贷款结构上看，呈现企业贷款多增、住户贷款少增的特征。
In the credit market, the data on new RMB loans reflects the borrowing intentions of both enterprises and residents. In January 2025, new RMB loans amounted to RMB 5.13 trillion, significantly exceeding expectations (the market expectation was around RMB 4.32 trillion) and also surpassing the level of the same period last year (RMB 4.92 trillion), achieving a "good start" for new credit in this year. However, looking at the loan structure, there is a characteristic of increased corporate loans and reduced household loans.
企业部门方面，1月新增企事业单位贷款4.78万亿元，比去年同期多增9200亿元。其中，短期贷款1.74万亿元，比去年同期多增2800亿元；中长期贷款3.46万亿元，比去年同期多增1500亿元；票据融资－5149亿元，比去年同期少减4584亿元。
For the corporate sector, new loans to enterprises and institutions in January were RMB 4.78 trillion, an increase of RMB 92 billion compared to the same period last year. Among them, short-term loans stood at RMB 1.74 trillion, an increase of RMB 28 billion; medium- to long-term loans reached RMB 3.46 trillion, up by RMB 15 billion; bill financing was negative RMB 51.49 billion, with a decrease that was RMB 45.84 billion less than that of the same period last year.
企业短期贷款大幅多增，意味着企业对经济的预期正在增强，投资意愿逐步提升。尤其是中长期贷款同比大幅多增，显示开年以来“两重”“两新”信贷需求继续加速释放，制造业、建筑业新增项目年初陆续落地，也说明信贷政策更加积极，“加大货币信贷投放力度”的要求正在得到落实。
The substantial increase in corporate short-term loans indicates that companies' expectations for the economy are strengthening and their investment willingness is gradually improving. Particularly, the significant increase in medium- to long-term loans shows that since the beginning of the year, the demand for credit in "two heavies" and "two news" has continued to accelerate, with new projects in manufacturing and construction being implemented one after another at the beginning of the year. This also suggests that credit policies have become more proactive, with requirements to "increase the scale of monetary credit lending" being implemented effectively.
住户部门方面，1月新增住户贷款4438亿元，比去年同期少增5363亿元。其中，短期贷款减少497亿元，中长期贷款增加4935亿元。
Regarding the household sector, new household loans in January amounted to RMB 44.38 billion, which is RMB 53.63 billion less than the same period last year. Among these, short-term loans decreased by RMB 4.97 billion, while medium- to long-term loans increased by RMB 49.35 billion.
住户短期贷款大幅减少，这在近年来比较少见。平安首经团队分析认为，这与存量房贷利率下调后，居民置换房贷行为减少有关。此外，住户短期贷款减少还可能与消费意愿下降、春节季节性因素以及金融监管政策对短期贷款用途的严格限制有关。
The significant reduction in household short-term loans is uncommon in recent years. According to analysis by Ping An's first economy team, this is related to the reduction in mortgage replacement activities following the cut in existing mortgage rates. Additionally, the decline in household short-term loans may also be associated with decreased consumer confidence, seasonal factors during the Spring Festival, and stricter regulations on the use of short-term loans by financial regulators.
上述数据表明，近期整体信贷需求呈现分化态势，企业信贷需求较强，而住户信贷需求偏弱。尽管企业信贷需求有所增强，但住户部门信贷需求的不足仍制约了整体信贷市场的全面回暖。
These data suggest that recently, overall credit demand has shown a divergent trend, with stronger demand from the corporate sector but weaker demand from the household sector. Although corporate credit demand has strengthened, the insufficiency of household sector credit demand still constrains the comprehensive recovery of the overall credit market.
2022年12月-2024年12月 制造业PMI变化趋势
图源：《财新》：《12月统计局制造业PMI降至50.1 连续三月位于扩张区间》
制造业PMI作为经济活动趋势的重要标志，2024年11月和12月均在50%以上，连续三个月位于扩张区间，一定程度上显示出经济的温和复苏，经济活动处于扩张状态，且与M1增速回升态势波动方向一致。
The manufacturing PMI, as an important indicator of economic activity trends, was above 50% in both Novemberand December, three consecutive months in the expansion zone, ,which to some extent shows a moderate economic recovery, with economic activities in an expansionary state and consistent with the fluctuation direction of the rebound in M1 growth rate.
然而，原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于50%，反映出企业对未来信心不足，不进货、不招人，观望情绪浓厚。这表明，尽管M1增速回升，但经济回暖仍需要等待政策效果的进一步显现。
However, the raw material inventory index and the employee index are below 50%, reflecting that enterprises are not confident enough in the future, not stocking up, not recruiting, and waiting for a strong atmosphere. This indicates that despite the rebound in M1 growth, the strength of economic recovery is weak, and it is necessary to wait for the further emergence of policy effects.
2020年1月-2025年1月 原材料库存指数（图源：知了财报）M1增速回升无疑是一个积极信号，但经济回暖的力度和持续性仍需观察，特别是考虑到居民消费意愿、企业借贷意愿和政府财政刺激效果的复杂性。
The rebound in M1 growth is undoubtedly a positive signal, but the strength and sustainability of the economic recovery still require observation, especially considering the complexity of factors such as consumer willingness to spend, business willingness to borrow, and the effectiveness of government fiscal stimulus.
刘欣在谈及未来经济发展预期时表示，“从我自身的角度来说，其实挺看好的，能够感受到政府的决心。目前不仅是银行让渡利益，政府自身也在让利，一些企业也在跃跃欲试，等待新的机会。”
When discussing future economic development expectations, Liu Xin said, "From my own perspective, I am actually quite optimistic and can feel the government's determination. Because it has indeed introduced a lot of policies, not only is the bank transferring benefits, but the government itself is also making concessions, and we can see some tax cuts, and we can also see some enterprises eager to try, still waiting for new opportunities."
由林青表示，加大财政政策的刺激力度是提高有效需求，促进经济发展的重要方式，若M1增速具有一定持续性，如何确保政府的债务规模，包括隐形债务在一定的范围内，都是需要重点关注的风险。
According to You Linqing, increasing the stimulus of fiscal policy is an important way to boost effective demand and promote economic development. If the M1 growth rate has a certain sustainability, ensuring that the scale of government debt, including hidden debt, remains within a certain range are risks that need to be closely monitored.
备注：文中受访者刘欣为化名。
Note: The name Liu Xin is a pseudonym used for the interviewee in this article.
