这是我们2023年5月22日发表的《洪灝 | 2023年下半年展望：进则无咎》的英文原版报告Hao Hong | Outlook 2H2023: This Time is Different
China’s record trade surplus mirrors the surge in deposits and M2. It is a testament of China’s manufacturing prowess. But such comparative advantage also means that Chinese exports have been the key to cope with the slowdown during the pandemic. The US demand is now being tampered with by the Fed, hampering China’s manufacturing and exports strength. As such, commodities, energy, and Chinese stocks are frail despite China’s reopen.
Chinese households are overextended during the pandemic, and are not in a strong position to borrow more. This is why lending lags money growth, and “revenge consumption” is fleeting. Further, consumption is a much smaller part of the Chinese economy, and thus the foreign recovery experience won’t easily apply – contrary to consensus belief.
If the US avoids a recession, Chinese manufacturing and exports will pull through. Bottoming industry profits and recovering confidence both in the US and China are hinting at rising probability. If so, the recovery will take some time to eventuate, and risk assets will perform later. If not, the market will take a dive, but then the central bank will likely ease further to support the recovery – much like it did in 2014 to 2015. In either scenario, we must take a deep breath, and hold onto our faith a little longer.
