■ 通过接受其领导者和合作伙伴的角色，美国可以帮助为所有人开辟一条通向可持续和公平未来的道路。行动的时刻已经到来。
南华早报 评论
作者
滕绍骏 | 全球化智库（CCG）常务理事
随着第29届联合国气候变化大会（COP29）在阿塞拜疆巴库召开，全球社会在应对气候变化的斗争中正处于一个关键时刻。多年来，国际气候谈判一直依赖两个最大排放国——美国和中国的合作。在中国持续扩大可再生能源能力并加强其在气候政策中的全球影响力的同时，美国却因政治不稳定陷入信誉危机，削弱了其领导地位。
在本次大会上，特朗普的重返白宫并再次退出《巴黎协定》的阴影笼罩着会议。这种不确定性不仅威胁全球气候进程，还让人质疑美国在应对这一紧迫危机中的角色和承诺。
反复无常的负担
美国对国际气候努力的承诺一直伴随着一系列戏剧性的反复。2015年，在时任总统巴拉克·奥巴马的领导下，美国在推动《巴黎协定》的达成中扮演了关键角色。这份具有里程碑意义的协议促使近200个国家承诺将全球变暖限制在2摄氏度以下，被誉为外交上的胜利，象征着对共同威胁的团结应对。
然而，仅仅两年后，特朗普政府以经济主权为由宣布美国退出协议。这一举动震惊了国际社会，标志着美国从全球气候外交中的退缩。2021年，当乔·拜登总统重新加入《巴黎协定》时，人们的希望被重新点燃，但美国的信誉损害依然存在。
如今，随着美国可能再次退出《巴黎协定》的前景浮现，国际社会面临进一步的不稳定。这种反复无常不仅会削弱信任，还会动摇实现全球气候目标所需的合作框架。美国摇摆不定的承诺削弱了其以身作则的能力，而这曾是其充满活力的角色。
美国不稳定性的全球影响
在COP29大会上，各国正在谈判后2025年的气候行动资金承诺，这使得当前形势尤其严峻。发展中国家往往是气候变化最脆弱的受害者，它们依赖富裕国家的资源支持，推动向可再生能源的过渡并增强抵御气候影响的能力。这些资金承诺对于将雄心转化为行动至关重要。
然而，美国作为一个金融和外交领导者的信誉已经受损。其他国家不得不质疑美国是否能够兑现长期承诺。这种不确定性正在创造一个由其他全球大国填补的真空。
中国在气候领导中的稳步崛起
当美国陷入内部分裂之际，中国在可再生能源和气候外交方面已成为主导力量。在过去十年中，中国在太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机、电池和电动汽车方面投入巨大，成为这些领域的全球最大制造商。中国还提前六年实现了2030年的风能和太阳能目标，并有望比预期更早达到碳排放峰值。
在COP29上，中国的成就受到广泛关注，许多国家将其视为向绿色未来过渡的可靠伙伴。尽管关于中国在国际气候资金方面的贡献仍存疑问，但其在可再生能源方面的持续专注已使其成为全球应对气候变化努力中的自然领导者。
美国的未来之路
若要重新确立其全球气候领导地位，美国必须优先考虑一致性和雄心。重建信任不仅需要留在国际协议中，还需要在国内展示切实的进展。这包括加大对可再生能源的投资，加速电动汽车的普及，并实施减少所有部门温室气体排放的政策。
此外，美国必须履行对发展中国家的金融承诺。这不仅仅是外交的问题，也是公平的问题。作为历史上最大的排放国之一，美国有道义和现实责任去支持那些最容易受到气候变化影响的国家。履行这些承诺将表明美国在领导和合作中的严肃态度。
呼吁两党团结
国内政治是美国气候领导力面临的最大挑战之一。政府更替之间的反复无常凸显了气候行动需要两党支持的重要性。建立超越党派界限的持久政策对于确保美国在全球舞台上的可靠性至关重要。
气候危机不是党派问题，而是全球问题。两党必须认识到，投资可再生能源、加强基础设施和减少排放不仅是环境的迫切需求，也是推动经济增长和创新的机会。
反思与行动的时刻
COP29不仅仅是一场会议，更是对全球共同应对生存威胁的努力的反映。对于美国而言，这是重新承诺全球领导力并证明其作为气候变化斗争中可靠盟友的机会。未来之路不仅需要言辞，更需要行动的一致性和合作。
巴库的决策将决定未来几年气候行动的轨迹。在全球瞩目下，美国有机会证明自己能够迎接挑战。通过接受其领导者和合作伙伴的角色，美国可以帮助为所有人开辟一条通向可持续和公平未来的道路。行动的时刻已经到来。
滕绍骏是美中公共事务协会会长，同时担任美国外交政策协会荣誉学者，中美交流基金会特邀顾问，全球化智库（CCG）常务理事，及四川大学国际关系学院的客座教授。
文章选自南华早报，2024年11月19日
Fred S. Teng: US must be consistent to reclaim climate leadership role
SCMP Op-Ed
■ As China emerges as a climate leader, the US can still be a reliable partner by staying in global agreements and making progress at home.
By Fred S. Teng | a Senior Council Member at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG)
With the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (Cop29) under way in Baku, Azerbaijan, the global community stands at a pivotal moment in its fight against climate change. For years, international climate negotiations have hinged on cooperation between two of the largest emitters – the United States and China.
While China has steadily expanded its renewable energy capacity and strengthened its global influence in climate policy, the US faces a credibility crisis as political volatility undermines its leadership.
The spectre of the US potentially withdrawing from the Paris Agreement under a second Trump administration casts a shadow over the conference. This uncertainty risks derailing global climate progress and leaves many questioning the US’ role in the collective effort to address the most urgent crisis of our time.
The US’ commitment to international climate efforts has been marked by a series of dramatic reversals. In 2015, under president Barack Obama, the US played a pivotal role in securing the Paris Agreement, a landmark accord in which nearly 200 countries committed to limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius. This was hailed as a triumph of diplomacy, symbolising unity against a common threat.
However, two years later, the Donald Trump administration announced the US’ withdrawal from the agreement, citing concerns over economic sovereignty. The decision sent shock waves through the international community, signalling a US retreat from global climate diplomacy. Hope was rekindled when US President Joe Biden re-entered the agreement in 2021 but the damage to US credibility lingered.
With the looming threat of another US withdrawal, the international community faces the prospect of further instability. A second exit from the Paris Agreement would not only erode trust but also weaken the collaborative framework needed to achieve global climate goals. Such a move would undermine the US’ ability to lead by example, a role it once embraced with vigour.
The stakes are particularly high at Cop29, where countries are negotiating financial commitments for post-2025 climate action. Developing nations, which are the most vulnerable to climate change, depend on resources promised by wealthier countries to transition to renewable energy and build resilience against climate-related disasters. These financial pledges are critical to bridging the gap between ambition and action.
Yet, the US’ credibility as a financial and diplomatic leader has been diminished. Other nations are left to question whether the US can be relied upon to honour long-term commitments. However, this uncertainty creates a vacuum that other global powers are beginning to fill.
While the US grapples with its internal challenges, China has emerged as a dominant force in renewable energy and climate diplomacy. Over the past decade, China has invested heavily in solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles, becoming the world’s largest manufacturer in each of these sectors. China is likely to meet its 2030 wind and solar energy targets six years ahead of schedule and is also on track to peak its carbon emissions sooner than expected.
China’s achievements have not gone unnoticed at Cop29, where many nations view it as a reliable partner in the transition to a greener future. Questions remain about China’s role in international climate finance but its consistent focus on renewable energy has made it a natural leader in the global effort to combat climate change.
For the US to regain its position as a global climate leader, it must be ambitious and consistent. Rebuilding trust requires not only staying in international agreements but also showing tangible progress at home. This includes doubling down on renewable energy investments, accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles, and enacting policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors.
The US also must fulfil its financial commitments to developing nations. This is not merely a matter of diplomacy but of equity. As one of the largest historical emitters, the US has a moral and practical obligation to support countries that are most vulnerable to the disasters of climate change. Meeting its commitments would show the US is serious about being a responsible leader and partner.
Domestic politics pose one of the greatest challenges to US climate leadership. The whiplash between administrations highlights the need for bipartisan support for climate action. Establishing durable policies that transcend party lines is critical to ensuring that the US remains a reliable player on the global stage.
The climate crisis is not a partisan issue – it is a global one. Both of the dominant US political parties must recognise that investing in renewable energy, strengthening infrastructure and reducing emissions are not only environmental imperatives but also opportunities to drive economic growth and innovation.
Cop29 is more than a conference; it reflects the world’s collective effort to address an existential threat. For the US, it is a chance to recommit to global leadership and show it can be a dependable ally in the fight against climate change. The path forward requires more than rhetoric; it demands action, consistency and collaboration.
Decisions made in Baku will shape the trajectory of climate action for years to come. As the world watches, the US has a chance to prove that it can rise to the challenge. By embracing its role as a leader and partner, the US can help chart a course toward a sustainable and equitable future for all. The time to act is now.
Fred Teng is President of AmericaChina, he is also an Honorary Fellow of the Foreign Policy Association, Senior Advisor to the China-United States Exchange Foundation, Senior Council Member of the Center for China and Globalization, and Visiting Professor of the School of International Studies, Sichuan University.
From SCMP, 2024-11-19
CCG 图书
● 出版 | 中国科学技术出版社
● 作者 | 王辉耀
图书介绍
本书深度剖析了中国在全球化浪潮中的角色演变与抉择，及其对全球未来的影响。全书分为三部分，第一部分回顾了中国融入全球化的历程，展示了中国从一个封闭的农业国家逐步转型为全球第二大经济体的过程。书中详细探讨了中国在贸易、投资、跨国企业崛起等方面的角色变迁，以及教育、人才和文化纽带在这一进程中的重要作用。第二部分探讨了中国在国际舞台上的崛起及其对全球治理的影响。作者分析了中国在多极化世界中的地位变化，风云激荡中的中国外交，中美关系的复杂性，以及中国在崛起的、更加一体化的亚洲中的角色。同时，还讨论了中欧关系的发展与挑战。第三部分审视了多边主义面临的挑战和改革。书中探讨了如何共同应对全球性挑战，寻找自由贸易的发展方向，以及“一带一路”倡议的发展。通过这些讨论，展示出中国在全球治理中的积极参与和贡献。
● 出版 | 中国科学技术出版社
● 编著 | 王辉耀、苗绿
图书介绍
《对话世界：理解新时代的全球化》全书分为三部分：第一部分“全球化发展史”回顾了全球化的历程，从古代贸易到现代经济转型，探讨了全球化的起源与演变。通过与耶鲁大学教授瓦莱丽·韩森、《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁·沃尔夫和《世界是平的》作者托马斯·弗里德曼的对话，揭示了全球化的多层次发展。第二部分“弥合全球不平等与赤字”探讨了全球化带来的不平等和治理赤字问题。诺贝尔经济学奖得主安格斯·迪顿、巴黎和平论坛主席帕斯卡尔·拉米、亚洲协会副所长温迪·卡特勒等嘉宾，分享了他们对全球经济不平等、贸易体系和制度改革的看法。第三部分《权力转移与大国关系》分析了21世纪的权力转移和大国关系，特别是中美关系的复杂性。通过与哈佛大学教授格雷厄姆·艾利森、“软实力之父”约瑟夫·奈、布鲁金斯学会主席约翰·桑顿等专家的对话，讨论了大国竞争、合作以及全球治理的未来。
● 出版 | 中信出版集团
● 编著 | 王辉耀
图书介绍
作为海内外决策层和广大公众理解中美关系时广泛引用的框架，“修昔底德陷阱”将成为未来几十年对全球秩序有决定性影响的问题。在与全球化智库(CCG)理事长王辉耀的对话中，格雷厄姆·艾利森就中美关系和中美地缘政治竞争、中国崛起、美国外交政策、美苏关系、全球地缘政治、核武器、朝鲜问题、新冠疫情及影响等议题进行了深入阐述；全面、系统性地展示了艾利森对“修昔底德陷阱”和中美经济、金融、科技、军事、外交等多个方面存在的结构性矛盾和竞争的看法；深入而透彻地分析了中美双方实力的变化，以及发生战争的风险；坦诚而直率地提出了跨越“修昔底德陷阱”的方法和建议。
● 出版 | 中信出版集团
● 作者 | 王辉耀，苗绿
《21世纪的中国与全球化》首先梳理了全球化的变迁与理论发展，从技术与人本等新的视角观察全球化，并做出全球化的界定，总结了后疫情时代新型全球化具备的特征，然后对中国融入全球化的历史与现实进行了全面总结，用数据与事实说明，中国正在从全球化的受益者发展为反哺者，正在通过自身发展推动全球化进程，并尝试承担起更多国际责任，为全球治理创新贡献方案。作者对全球化发展的理论和文献做了梳理，回顾了全球化在世界和中国的发展历程，指出全球化走到了一个十字路口。本书从第四章开始，两位作者对中国推动全球化实现包容性和公平性发展的路径进行了探索，通过发挥中国的优势和特点，让中国为全球化发展注入新动力。作者基于长期的研究以及与国内国际、官产学各界有影响力重要人士的对话交流等，对中国的全球化发展路径及全球治理创新等形成了新的思考，提出中国推动全球化发展的三大支柱与七大路径。
