Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the whole Western world has been in high spirits by sharing in a hatred toward one common enemy and by rejuvenating their alliance. A “Global NATO” and the Indo-Pacific version of NATO have both become heated topics of discussion. NATO, which was described as “experiencing a brain death” by French President Emmanuel Macron three years ago, seems to have found a magical cure for its rejuvenation. Is this really the case?
俄乌冲突爆发以来，整个西方沉浸在“同仇敌忾”的情感高潮和“联盟复兴”的胜利气氛中。无论是故纸堆里的“全球北约”（Global NATO），还是新造的“印太北约”，都成了热门话题。3年前还被法国总统马克龙称为“脑死亡”的北约，似乎一夜觅得返老还童的良方，战略失焦和内部纷争的沉疴一朝得愈。真的如此吗？
Only by looking retrospectively back on U.S.-Russia-Europe relations and the history of the eastward expansion of NATO after the end of the Cold War can we find the root cause of the current European security crisis and have a correct grasp of the security situation for Europe and the wider world in the future.
只有超越眼前的硝烟，回溯冷战以来美俄欧关系和北约东扩的历史，才能理解当前欧洲安全悲剧的根源，正确展望欧洲安全和全球安全的未来方向。
Currently, Europe is being disturbed by both a Cold War and a hot war, with its economy being severely impacted by sanctions and its security facing the grimmest challenge since World War II. Even after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the security situation in Europe will hardly be positive.Although Europe has undergone several crises over the past 30 years, the current situation there is just too severe for most politicians and scholars to have expected. The expansion of NATO to a historic high level has reduced the overall security of Europe to the lowest level in its history.
当前，欧洲冷热战交织、经济惨遭制裁重创，面临二战以来最严峻的安全挑战。即使俄乌冲突结束，欧洲未来安全形势也难言乐观。尽管过去30年中经历了多次危机，绝大多数政治家和学者也未能预料如此严重的后果。北约扩张至历史性的顶点，欧洲的整体安全形势跌落到历史性的谷底。
There is a Chinese saying that goes “It takes more than one cold day for the river to freeze three feet deep.” In this respect, U.S.-Russia-Europe relations have not immediately developed into the state that they are in today, but represent the result of a downward spiral. Washington has missed the opportunity to build a truly inseparable European security system more than once. Over the course of the past 30 years, and despite the rounds of eastward expansion by NATO, the deployment of an anti-missile system in East Europe, and NATO military interventions, and even after the Russo-Georgian War in 2008 and the Crimean crisis in 2014, Russian leaders repeatedly expressed their country’s willingness to join NATO or to jointly build a Pan-European security community together with countries in the NATO alliance.
冰冻三尺非一日之寒。美俄欧关系走到今天这一步，不是自由落体式下坠，而是螺旋下行。美国不止一次“错失”建立真正完整不可分割的欧洲安全体系的机会。30年内，叶利钦、普京、梅德韦杰夫等俄罗斯精英反复表达了加入北约，或与北约国家合作建立泛欧安全共同体的愿望。即使是经历数轮北约东扩、东欧反导系统部署、北约数次军事干涉的冲击，甚至是经历了2008年俄格战争和2014年克里米亚危机后，也仍未放弃“初心”。
Why has the U.S. missed these opportunities? The fundamental driving force for the eastward expansion of NATO after the end of the Cold War is not Central and Eastern European countries’ need to safeguard their own security, but the political impulse of the U.S. in spreading its so-called free and democratic political system and neoliberal economic policies, in addition to consolidating U.S. hegemony.
美国为什么会“错失机会”？归根结底，冷战后北约东扩的根本驱动力，不是中东欧国家的安全需求，而是美国扩张其所谓自由民主政体和新自由主义经济体系、巩固其全球霸权的政治冲动。自克林顿时代起成为北约东扩理论依据的“民主和平论”，不过是自卡特和里根时代起美国对东欧“和平演变”政治战略的逻辑延伸。
NATO, in the post-Cold War era, has put its needs in the ideological domain above that of the security domain, sacrificing the long-term security of Europe to “consolidate and spread freedom and democracy,” frequently crossing Russia’s red lines on NATO expansion, repeatedly orchestrating “color revolutions” in countries bordering Russia and other zones of core interest to Russia, and inviting countries that did not even meet alliance standards to join the bloc. These acts not only led to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but also propelled the whole of Europe and other regions around the world into a financial war and a war of sanctions, bringing a cascade of risks to global energy and food security.
冷战后的北约，以意识形态需求取代安全需求，以牺牲欧洲长期安全为代价来“巩固和传播自由民主”，屡次突破俄罗斯划定的“扩员红线”，屡次在俄周边和核心利益区策动“颜色革命”，并向根本不满足北约入盟标准的国家抛出虚假的“橄榄枝”。最终不仅酿成俄乌手足相残的悲剧，还将整个欧洲和其他地区拖入制裁战、金融战，将全球置于连锁性的能源和粮食安全风险中。
The expansion of NATO is not just an act of the bloc moving eastward, but also an expansion of the goals and strategic measures of the bloc. The expansion of the military alliance will inevitably exacerbate the security dilemma between the organization and its rivals. Instead of refraining from and avoiding provoking Russia – a piece of advice given to the U.S. by relevant experts – political elites in Washington have used NATO as a tool of the U.S. to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries through the use of force all in an attempt to pursue American hegemony toward the hinterland of the Eurasian continent and its border regions, while actively deploying anti-missile systems in countries on the eastern edge of the alliance, undermining the strategic stability of the region and that of the whole world.
北约的扩张远非单纯的地缘扩张，同时也是联盟目标和战略手段的扩张。军事同盟在地域与性质上的扩张，将不可避免地增加其与竞争对手间的安全困境。美国政治精英未能听取专业人士“审慎、克制、避免刺激俄罗斯”的呼吁，一方面将北约打造为域外武力干涉工具，令盟友在巴尔干、中东、阿富汗充当美国跟班，试图向欧亚内陆和边缘地带扩张霸权；另一方面积极在北约东翼国家部署反导系统，破坏地区和全球战略稳定。
Countries that had wished to protect their security by joining NATO finally ended up in a trap of bloc politics, with their security becoming threatened. The closer they are to NATO, the more insecure they become; while the more insecure they are, the more eager they are to tie themselves to the war chariot of NATO. One example is that some European countries, despite not having been the targets of U.S.-imposed sanctions, have suffered from inflation associated with U.S. actions and have increased their military spending in order to meet NATO’s defense targets, in this way somehow thanking the NATO alliance for “enhancing their security.” Only by abandoning the logic of ideological confrontation and bloc confrontation, abandoning the pursuit of illusory moral superiority and absolute security can universal security, peace and prosperity be achieved for all.
那些希望借加入北约来保障自身安全的国家，最终落入同盟政治和安全困境的陷阱：越靠向北约，其安全环境反而更趋恶化；越不安全，这些国家便只能继续绑紧在北约的战车上。某些欧洲国家承受了制裁、通胀和军费增支的代价，却反过来感激北约“增强了本国安全”，便是这一情形的真实写照。只有跳出意识形态对立和集团对抗的逻辑，放弃追求虚幻的道德优势和绝对安全，才能使所有人得到普遍的安全、和平与繁荣。
The short-term cohesion found in NATO countries is being generated from the alliance’s sanctions against Russia. This is not, however, able to mitigate the bloc’s structural contradictions. As the sanctions become protracted over time, such issues as the refugee crisis, inflation and economic recession will become more prominent. This will bring about varied degrees of pain to NATO countries because they have different geographical conditions and industrial structures. In the meantime, the U.S., by hyping up the so-called “China threat” and “China-Russia alliance,” has attempted to divert the attention of NATO countries from containing Russia to increasing pressure on China, while ignoring the fact that most European countries refuse to choose sides between China and the U.S. This has further intensified divisions among countries in the NATO alliance.
北约在对俄制裁上体现的短期凝聚力，并未消弭内部的结构性矛盾。随着制裁长期化，难民问题、通胀危机和经济衰退等压力加剧，将在不同地缘禀赋和产业结构的成员国之间制造“痛苦不均”的相对剥夺感。而美国近几年炮制所谓“中国威胁”“中俄轴心”、将北约焦点从遏俄转为遏华的企图，则更是无视多数欧洲国家不愿在中美间选边站队的事实，增加北约内部裂痕。
(Kang Jie is an associate research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies.)
（作者为中国国际问题研究院欧亚研究所副研究员）
