芒格：真正决定伯克希尔成功的是40年中那20笔最好的交易

作者：瓦尔登登登

本次学习Charlie Munger DuBridge lecture at University of Michigan 2010 （2010年查理芒格密歇根大学演讲），希望有所收获。

1、查理·芒格的背景介绍

And our special guest today is Charles Munger, who for more than three decades has been the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, the diversified investment company shared by Warren Buffett. Born in Omaha, He left the university to serve in the Army Air Corps in World War 2 and after military service earned a degree from the Harvard Law School, magna cum laude, and they went to California to practice law. In 1962, he cosplayed the firm that is now known as Munger Tolls at ollison. During this time, he became a serious investor, first running a successful investment partnership in his own in two and joining forces with Warren Buffett. The success . Of Berkshire Hathaway is well known, but behind the headlines are the values by which Charlie has conducted his own professional life.

我们今天的特别嘉宾是查理·芒格，他在三十多年的时间里一直是沃伦·巴菲特共同拥有的多元化投资公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦的副董事长。查理出生在奥马哈，以数学专业身份进入大学，他在第二次世界大战期间离开大学去参军，并在服役后从哈佛大学法学院获得了优异的学位，然后前往加利福尼亚州执业。1962年，他与奥蒂斯·芒格共同创立了现在的芒格·托尔斯律师事务所。在此期间，他成为了一名认真的投资者，先是经营自己的投资合伙公司，然后与沃伦·巴菲特合作。伯克希尔哈撒韦的成功众所周知，但在这条新闻背后，是查理在指导他自己的职业生涯时所遵循的价值观。

2、一生中真正重大的机会将会很少，决定伯克希尔成功的是40年中那20笔最好的交易

your really major opportunities in life are going to be few. And when you get a lollop aoos for God's sakes, don't hang by like a timid little rabbit, don't hang back, they aren't that many of the really big good ones.If you take the whole history of herbertshire Hathaway, if you take out the 20 best transactions, our record is a joke. Well, 20 V transactions over 40 some years, that's one every two years. And we work at it all the time. Life is not just bathing you on unlimited opportunities, even if you work at being able to find them and seize them.I saw another hand right here. Undergraduate. Production across.

你认为你一生中真正重大的机会将会很少。当你得到一个好机会时，看在上帝的份上，不要像一只胆小的兔子一样犹豫不决，不要退缩，真正的大好机会并不多。如果你看看伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的整个历史，如果你把20笔最好的交易去掉，我们的记录就是一个笑话。好吧，40多年里有20笔交易，这就是每两年一次。我们一直在努力。生活并不只是给你无尽的机会，即使你努力去寻找并抓住它们。

3、终身学习、一生都在追求知识和智慧

Patience, hard work, and rational thinking. In short, the principles of his personal hero, benjamin Franklin. And like Franklin, charlie has sought to use his own self andm made resources for the good of others and has had many long-standing charitable involvements in education, health care, and the arts. Another interest that Charlie shares with Benjamin Franklin is that of lifelong learning. He reads several weeks books a week. He remains passionate about learning, teaching, and always problem solving. I suspect that if you're looking for the secret of Charlie's success, you might find it right there, an ongoing quest for knowledge and wisdom that remains central to his life.And I might add that one of Charlie's favorite quotes applies to himself as well. Ability will get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there.

耐心、努力工作以及理性思考。简而言之，是他个人偶像本杰明·富兰克林的信条。就像富兰克林一样，查理致力于利用自己的资源和努力为他人谋福祉，并在教育、医疗和艺术领域长期参与慈善事业。

查理和本杰明·富兰克林还有另一个共同点，那就是终身学习的兴趣。他每周读几本书。他仍然对学习、教学和解决问题充满热情。我怀疑，如果你正在寻找查理成功的原因，你会发现它就在那里，那就是他一生都在追求知识和智慧。我还要补充一点，查理最喜欢的一句话也适用于他自己。能力会让你达到顶峰，但只有品格才能让你留在那里。

4、不预测宏观经济潮起潮落，我们的系统是尽可能有效地游泳

Let me start with a qualification. Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions. Our system is to swimmers competently as we can, and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large, we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play for game for a long time. I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude. It's kind of a snare and a delusion out gas macroeconomic cycles. Very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?

让我从资格声明开始。沃伦和我并没有通过做出成功的宏观经济预测并押注我们的结论来谋生。我们的系统是尽可能有效地游泳，有时潮水会帮我们，有时潮水会对抗我们。但总的来说，我们并不太在意预测潮汐，因为我们计划长期玩这个游戏。我建议你们所有人都有同样的态度。试图预测宏观经济周期是一种陷阱和错觉。很少有人能成功做到这一点，其中一些人还是偶然成功的。当游戏如此艰难时，为什么不采用另一种系统，尽可能有效地游泳，并认为在漫长的一生中，你会经历潮起和潮落呢？

5、实现生活中所想要的东西的最佳方式就是值得你所想要的

And some of you are going out into a bad market. My attitude toward that is very simple. I think you should all just say, so what?

There are good tides and there are bad tides. I have a long way to go, and we know from the example of other people that if you constantly stand well by your own generation and cope with competency and grace with whatever life deals you, and just keep doing it, your share of the honors and emoluments of the civilization in due time are very likely to come if you deserve the emoluments. And of course, that's the other advice, the best way to get what you want in life is to deserve what you want. How could it be otherwise? It's not crazy enough so that the world is looking grow out of undeserving people to reward.

你们中的一些人将进入一个糟糕的市场。我对这种情况的态度非常简单。我认为你们都应该说，那又怎样？潮起潮落。我还有很长的路要走，我们从他人的例子中知道，如果你始终对自己的时代保持良好的立场，以能力和优雅应对生活给予你的一切，并且一直这样做，那么你迟早会得到你应得的荣誉和文明酬劳。当然，这是另一种建议，实现生活中所想要的东西的最佳方式就是值得你所想要的。否则还能怎样呢？这并不疯狂到让世界开始奖励那些不值得的人的地步。

6、在漫长的一生中，自怜自艾和嫉妒这两件事永远不应该做

There are two things I've found in my long life, when you'd never do one is never feel sorry for yourself if your child is dying of cancer, don't feel sorry for yourself, never, ever feel sorry for yourself. And the other thing you never want to have is envy. That's the only one of the deadly sin.You're never going to have any fun at at all.

在我漫长的一生中，我发现有两件事是你永远不应该做的。第一件是如果你的孩子死于癌症，你永远不会为自己感到难过。不要为自己感到难过，永远不要，永远不要为自己感到难过。另一件事是你永远不想要的，那就是嫉妒。这是唯一一种致命的罪恶。你永远不会有过任何乐趣。

7、如何应对困难：保持低调、尽你所能

why not take these opportunities, hardships, and so forth to make a man of yourself or a person of yourself, to use the modern lingo?And so I know how you should cope with whatever the difficulties are. The president, just keep your head down and do your best. And do some of the people who had the best careers and my age cohort, of the age cohort just before mine were the ones who had the worst club ring in the 30s because they were there when the great boom came.

为什么不利用这些机会、困难等等来成就你自己呢？用现代语言来说，就是成为一个人。

所以我知道你们应该如何应对任何困难。保持低调，尽你所能。还有些人，他们的事业很成功，跟我同龄的人中的一些人，以及在我之前一代的人中的一些人，他们在三十多岁时是最糟糕的俱乐部成员，因为当大繁荣来临时，他们就在那里。

8、警惕资产负债表中的镜花水月

Look at the write offs, are you really earning money when you put something on your balance sheet that really isn't there? When you reach for it will fade away like mist. What the hell kind of a system is that?

看看这些减值，当你在资产负债表上记录一些实际上不存在的东西时，你真的在赚钱吗？当你伸手去拿时，它就会像雾一样消散。这到底是什么样的系统？

9、做正确的事情

I think it would be a net plus if we were plainly doing the right thing, if we borrowed I think when we just borrow the money and shovel at people, it's dangerous. But I think it is less dangerous when there's something really meritorious you're doing with the money. I think the infrastructure is sure to be very useful. It is sure to be needed. It's going in the right direction. Of course,

我认为如果我们明确地做正确的事情，如果我们借钱并创建基础设施，这将是一个净收益。

我认为，当我们只是借钱然后挥霍时，这是危险的。但如果我们用这些钱来做真正有意义的事情，我认为这会稍好一些。我认为基础设施肯定是非常有用的。它一定会被需要。它正在朝着正确的方向发展。

10、推迟一些事情并为重要的事情节省我们的精力

If we deferred some of that stuff and saved our energy for the big one, we might got the big one done.

如果我们推迟一些事情，并为重要的事情节省我们的精力，我们可能会完成这个重要的任务。

11、短期激励与长期主义

How do you propose to get past that and to shift our system from these short term incentives and planning to a more long term perspective, not just in our focus, but in how we act as well? Well, of course, of course, we have a terrible problem with these very short term incentives.I don't think it is required because the rest of the world cares terribly about the next quarter's earnings. Berkshire doesn't care. So this is everybody that cares.

你打算如何解决这个问题，并使我们的系统从这些短期激励和规划转向更长期的角度，不仅在我们的关注点上，也在我们的行动方式上？嗯，当然，当然，我们对这些非常短期的激励措施有一个严重的问题。我不认为这是必要的，因为世界其他国家非常关心下一季度的收益。伯克希尔不关心。所以这就是每个人都在关心的事情。

12、保持独立判断的重要性

So when the culture starts to go wrong, we're all susceptible to be dragged along. And therefore, it's a very good habit in life to develop what Kipling to keep your head when all about you are losing theirs. It's not I've been doing it all my life. Everybody's wrong with Charlie. It's caused me some trouble, but it's also created a huge advantage and it's not that bad averaged out.You know, you had a more convenient place right here where there's not a lot of crazy temptation. But if you go to a place where everybody is start craving mad and pushing and crazy, and it's very hard to not get sucked along as my father was almost sucked along and signing a some kind of perjured application for a hunting license in South Dakota, we can all drift into that stuff, but we don't watch it.

所以当文化开始出错时，我们都有可能被拖累。因此，在生活中养成一个很好的习惯是发展 Kipling 所说的保持头脑清醒，当周围的人都失去理智时，你仍能保持冷静。我一生都在这样做。查理的看法都是错误的。这给我带来了一些麻烦，但也带来了巨大的优势，总的来说，这并不坏。你知道，你在这里有一个更方便的地方，那里没有太多的疯狂诱惑。但如果你去一个每个人都开始疯狂渴望、推挤和疯狂的地方，你会发现很难不被卷入其中，就像我的父亲几乎被卷入其中，在 South Dakota 签署了一份某种伪证的狩猎许可证申请一样。

13、年轻人是否应该投资股市

Well, bunter I'd rather own common stocks I'd pick than the government bonds at the present rates. So that's an easy question for me. What you should do with your own life depends on your own opportunity costs, how likely it is you're going to need the money suddenly at an inconvenient time, and a lot of other subjects.

嗯，邦特尔，我宁愿持有我挑选的普通股而不是目前的政府债券。所以对我来说这是一个简单的问题。你如何处理你自己的生活取决于你自己的机会成本、你突然需要在不便的时候使用这笔钱的概率以及其他许多因素。

14、大多数人只有几次机会，可以通过抓住巨大的活动来做出巨大的改变

And but what he said over and over again to his grandchildren, including my mother, was the real opportunities that come to you are few. It's a very fortunate life that is just bathe an opportunity all the way. Most people just get a few times when they can make a huge difference by seizing a huge activity. And he said, when you find 1, my dear grandchildren, and you can clearly recognize it, he says, seize it boldly and don't do it small.

但他一遍又一遍地对他的孙子孙女们说，包括我的母亲，真正的机会是很少的。能够一路沐浴在机会中的人生是非常幸运的。大多数人只有几次机会，可以通过抓住巨大的活动来做出巨大的改变。他说，当你找到一个，亲爱的孙子孙女们，并且你可以清楚地认出它，他说，大胆地抓住它，不要做得太小。

15、享受生活的一部分就是看清现实，接受现实，无论你是否喜欢，都要适应现实

And we just better get used to it. And I think part of enjoying life is to just see it like it is and face it like it is and adapt to the reality as it is whether you like it or not, and the reality as it is is that Michigan is not going to dominate the world in autos the way it once did.

我们必须习惯这一点。我认为享受生活的一部分就是看清现实，接受现实，无论你是否喜欢，都要适应现实。

16、从历史意义上说，生活的铁律是如果你有幸处于领导地位，最终你必须交出接力棒

Athens is never again going to be the leader of all civilization, nor is Rome, nor is London. The baton passes the iron rule of life in a historical sense is that if you're lucky enough to be in a leadership position, eventually you have to pass the baton. That's the rule of human systems. Biologically, we all have to die. And as successful systems, we eventually have to pass the baton.

雅典再也不会成为所有文明的领导者，罗马不会，伦敦也不会。从历史意义上说，生活的铁律是，如果你有幸处于领导地位，最终你必须交出接力棒。这就是人类系统的规则。从生物学上讲，我们所有人最终都必须死亡。作为成功的系统，我们最终必须交出接力棒。

17、试着从过去中学习并在未来做出决定

It's not such a big deal when you have to part with it in the end. I do not regret. Generally. I only regret is a good, it's like the envy and resentment, a lot of other things. It just it means generally I don't have a lot of regrets.

当你最终不得不放弃它时，这并不是什么大不了的事。我不后悔。总的来说。我唯一后悔的是，它就像嫉妒和怨恨，还有很多其他的事情。总的来说，我只是没有很多遗憾。

I could have done it differently that I had a failed marriage or I don't second guess the past. I try and learn from the past and make decisions of the future. Well, i don't gnash my teeth. I expect that any human being is going to make a lot of dumb decisions, and I've certainly made a lot of dumb decisions in my life, but not as many as most people. 

我本可以有不同的做法，比如我曾经有过失败的婚姻，或者我不会对过去感到犹豫不决。我试着从过去中学习并在未来做出决定。嗯，我不会咬牙切齿。我预料到任何人类都会做出很多愚蠢的决定，而我一生中也确实做出了很多愚蠢的决定，但不会像大多数人一样多。